In the coming days, temperatures will rise above 30 degrees in some places. However, the heat sometimes brings severe storms with it. The west and south are particularly affected, as ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander knows. Then it gets a little cooler and more changeable.
ntv: The new week started with some heavy thunderstorms. Will the weather remain so turbulent?
Björn Alexander: First of all, we are now expecting a temporary calming down and the air is once again spreading like summer to midsummer. Some regions of Germany are therefore expecting the first heat wave of the year before the thunderstorms pick up speed again on Thursday and Friday.
How intense is the heat?
The peaks are between 30 and 34 degrees. This puts us in the area of the highest temperatures ever measured in mid-May. This shows how unusual this warmth is at this time of year. By the way, we generally only speak of a heat wave when there are at least 30 degrees and more for at least three days in a row.
Which areas are affected?
This affects the southwest up to and including Friday. The center of the country also gets a heat peak of around 30 degrees from west to east. But here the next thunderstorm seasons are not too long in coming.
Topic storms: what do we have to be prepared for?
On Wednesday we can expect a beautiful, summery day with only local heat thunderstorms - especially in the north-west and over the mountains. On Thursday, the storm will be more organized and more frequent, when severe thunderstorms from France and Benelux will spread to Germany. The details are still uncertain - especially the focal points. In principle, however, the situation seems to want to develop more explosively than in the last storm.
What dangers are there?
From Thursday noon onwards, thunderstorms with heavy rain and the risk of flooding, as well as hail and gusts of wind, can be expected in the entire western half with a probable focus in NRW. It will most likely not happen to everyone. But where the thunderstorms are brewing, amounts of rain of up to 40 liters per square meter and more are conceivable within a short period of time. For comparison: the average monthly precipitation in May in Germany is around 70 liters per square meter. From today's perspective, isolated supercells - i.e. particularly organized heavy thunderstorms - cannot be ruled out either. Ultimately, the potential of this development is explosive to dangerous. However, the details will only become clearer in the coming calculations of the weather computers.
Where can it stay beautiful longer?
This applies to Thursday in the east, where there should also be one of the hotspots in addition to the most sun. Peak values of around 29 to 32 degrees are possible both in the east and in the south-west. The West is meanwhile cooling down a bit in the muggy, thunderstorm air. And while the summer air spills up to the north, the coasts remain the freshest in the sea breeze at around 20 degrees.
How about Friday?
The weather computers still leave plenty of room for speculation. The majority of the forecasts, however, see new, thundery heavy rain coming from west to east. It is still completely open whether this will then spread from NRW to Saxony and Brandenburg or further north. Only the south should only get local thunderstorms in the humid summer air. And that in turn ensures that the heat mark on the Upper Rhine is cracked again. At up to 34 degrees, it could even be the hottest day of 2022 so far.
What do the weather maps show for the weekend?
The uncertainties remain high. However, it will probably tend to be less warm. For Saturday, that means highs of between 16 degrees on the North Sea and up to 25 degrees on the Upper Rhine. It is mostly changeable with sun and showers as well as thunder and lightning. Only the west is already on the sunnier side.
And on Sunday?
The north and the edge of the Alps are still rather mixed. Otherwise it is friendly to sunny and dry at 16 to 26 degrees; with the southwest remaining the warmest.
What is the trend doing next week? After all, with Ascension Day or Father's Day we are not only expecting a holiday, but also a long weekend?
Little is expected to change at the start of the week. So it tends to be more unstable in the north and south, while it tends to be nicer in the broad center of the country. Overall, the temperatures describe a similar middle course at 18 to 26 degrees. There are then summery as well as cooler and changeable variants in the calculations.
Is there a trend as to which of the two variants is more likely?
The bottom line is that the rather mixed forecasts currently dominate - sun worshipers should keep their fingers crossed for the long weekend. Nature as well as agriculture and frost management, on the other hand, should probably be happy about wetter and cooler weather. After all, the American weather model, for example, currently has widespread rainfall of 40 to 90, sometimes even over 100 liters per square meter in the program up to the end of the month.