BBVA Research joins the massive rebate of forecasts and leaves in evidence the macro picture of the government

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), CaixaBank or the General Council of Economists were some of the agencies and entities that had reduced the growth forecas

BBVA Research joins the massive rebate of forecasts and leaves in evidence the macro picture of the government

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), CaixaBank or the General Council of Economists were some of the agencies and entities that had reduced the growth forecasts of Spain. And to them, BBVA Research has been added today, which has been very remarkably its estimates and, at the same time, has evidenced that the macroeconomic table on which the government supports the state's general budgets (PGE) of 2022 presents figures that They do not conform to reality. Inflated, ultimately.

Specifically, the BBVA Stadium Service has reduced up to 5.2% the expected rebound for this year, which is 1.3 less points; and for 2022 it reduces it from 7% to 5.5%. They are undoubtedly very important cutting magnitudes.

"GDP of the second quarter of 2021 has shown an advance inferior than expected. The growth of 1.1% quarterly has been considerably less than the Adelade by the INE in its first estimate and that provided for by BBVA Research three months ago [2, 8% quarterly], due to the fall in investment and the negative contribution of net external demand, "explains the Study Service in reference to the historic rebate that carried out statistics on growth registered between April and June.

Likewise, the agency cites "the delay in the execution of the" European funds, which "the contribution of the foreign sector to growth was more negative than expected" and "interruptions in the value chains of the manufacturing sector worldwide".

And for next year, "BBVA Research estimates that bottlenecks will persist during the first semester of the year 2022, something that will have a significant negative impact on the growth of the economy." Its estimate is that this factor has an impact of between 1 and 1.4 percentage points, that is, its impact will be very important, and here is also included "the increase in fuel costs and energy production".

All these factors make BBVA Research figures (and almost all organisms and analysis signatures) are far from the macroeconomic picture. According to official figures, the gross domestic product (GDP) will bounce by 6.5% this year, while in 2022 the figure will be 7%.

If compared to those offered on Tuesday for the Study Service, it can be concluded that the Government has not taken the cut of the INE or, at least, that it considers that the growth not registered in the second quarter will recover in the third . At this point it does not stop being striking that Calviño confirmed the macro picture just two days before the INE review. Economy emphasizes that there is a law by which even the ministry can not know in advance what the figures will be, but even so it is still very striking, public correction to the vice president.

And as for the data of 2022, the difference seems to stow, almost entirely, the targeted bottlenecks in the production processes and the costs of fuels and energy.

Updated Date: 20 October 2021, 07:27

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