The National Institute of Statistics (INE) has recently reduced the Growth Data of the Spanish Economy in the second quarter of the year: in the forward figure, it considered that the rebound between April and June was 2.8%, while That in the revision he has published this Thursday has reduced the data up to 1.1%. That is, a downgrade of 1.7 points that shows that the behavior of the economy was not as vigorous as estimated.
This substantial modification, which until the arrival of the Covid was almost impossible to register, is due to several reasons. Statistics explains that the reviews you have made affect the activity of the SERVICE sector and certain branches of manufacturing activity, as well as the final expenditure of families, that is, to consumption. Specifically, 4.7% increased in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter, which meant two tenths lower than the initial estimate. In addition, a review of all series has been incorporated since the first quarter of 2018, and to all this the body adds, as it happens since the pandemic began, the existing difficulties for estimates at this time.
"In the analysis of the revisions of the aggregates, the difficulty inherent in the measurement of the conjuncture we have been facing us from the first quarter of 2020. It is a period of large and rapid changes in the evolution of the Economic activity that, both for its origin and its magnitude, represent an unprecedented statistical challenge, "he explains.
The important modification can have consequences in the annual growth data. In fact, the Bank of Spain improved this week its growth forecast for the whole year given the strong growth that, in principle, had registered the economy during the second trimester, although although it is true that that revival upward was Just a tenth.
In addition, most organizations and analysis firms foresee that the truly strong rebound of the economy occurs in the second part of the year, that is, in the third and fourth quarter. And that period, they insist, will be the one that really marked the level of the rebound that registered Spain during 2021.
Since the Government has already been launched and the commitment that economic activity will recover the level prior to the Covid before it begins 2022. The Bank of Spain, it is more prudent and it is estimated that this moment will not reach until the next year. "Between the second and third quarter of 2022," said the General Director of Economy and Statistics, Óscar Arce, corrected almost live for the Vice President Calviño. And is that the presentation of the macroeconomic forecasts of the BDE coincided over time with the update of the macro table by Calviño and, as asked by the Government's estimate, the head of the BDE was much more cautious.
Date Of Update: 23 September 2021, 07:02
