The United States lives in permanent elections. It has not been a year since the last elections and the rumorology of the candidates for 2024 is unleashed. Will it be the return match of 2024, Conjoe Biden Contradonald Trump? A new candidate in each match? Or do you bite against a republican different from Trump?
Apart from Biden and Trump, the Republican with the most possibilities (although a lot distance from the former president) is the governor of Florida, Ron Desantis, who has adopted a more 'trumpy' posture that Trump himself, assuming negativeist positions in terms of Vaccines and even prevent professors from the University of the State from exercising their Freedom of Chair and testify in a judgment on voting regulation that could give the reason to the rivals of the governor.
Another precandidate is the former Secretary of State and former Director of the CIA, Mike Pompeo, which, although it has not been pronounced either, has opted by way of facts to take the step that it usually precedes an entry in a campaign (as they showed in Your Day Trump and Biden): Become aesthetic surgery. In the case of Pompeo, to eliminate the most that remarkable belly of him, that he could reduce between the masses the support that these give him by the evangelical faith of him.
Another who aspires to the evangelical vote is the Vice President with Trump, Mike Pence, but his chances are scarce after the 'Trumpists' who assaulted the Capitol on January 6 toned the slogan "You have to hang Mike Pence", because this one He had invalidated the results of the elections. Getting your voters to want to hang you to want to vote is, rather than the land of the elections, of the miracles.
It is also among the Republican preland the Governor of Dakota del Sur Kristi Noem, another one who has decided to build his way to Washington based on not vaccinating his voters, and that last week he gave the definitive signal that interests the White House When he said: "I'm not going to introduce myself to the presidency."
None of them is among the favorites of the Republican Party establishment, which would prefer someone else from the center, as the senator for Kentucky Rand Paul (which, of course, opposes vaccines against Covid-19).
But what the elites say little matter. Trump has been done with the control of that political training. Between 67% and 78% of Republicans want the former president to present. So things, Trump has justification of plenty to make a third attempt to the White House, especially if you take into account your taste for being the center of attention, although others, like your niece, Mary, believe that it will not be precisely for fear of consolidating his image of 'loser'.
If the former president wants to enter the campaign, it has everything to win the nomination. But there is a small detail: being the candidate does not mean being the president. Trump left the White House with the lowest popularity since in 1945, surveys of the outgoing president's backrest began. And it does not seem to have improved. The average of the web specializing in Fivethirtyeight statistics says that 41.4% of Americans support you, compared to 53% that has an unfavorable opinion of it.
Now, on the Democratic side, who will be in 2024? The first question is if Joe Biden will repeat. During the 2020 campaign, the current president was self-defined as "a candidate of transition" and said that he would not present himself to re-election. As is usually usual in those cases, at its first press conference in the White House he declared that of course he was going to participate in 2024.
A revival Biden-Trump would be historic. There is only one precedent. It was in 1886. The Republican Benjamin Harrison, who had won in 1882, tried to get a second term against the Democrat Grover Cleveland, whom he had expelled from the White House. He won Cleveland, with which he became the only person in the US history occupied by the White House in two non-consecutive mandates.
Could you get Trump repeat the Cleveland play? To this day, it is impossible to know. It is possible that other elections between the two are a reissue of 2020, that is, some elections in which people do not vote in favor of someone, but against someone. And there, Trump seems to provoke more rejection. But a lot of time remains.
And, in addition, there are the more than 200 measures launched by a series of states controlled by the Republicans to combat the "fraud" of 2020, even though, up to date, only two cases of fraud have been detected, and in both it was treated of Republicans who adopted the identity of other people, in Texas and in Pennsylvania, to vote twice by Trump.
In fact, these measures are destined to make the urban population, the lowest income, and minorities - that is, three groups that support the Democrats - have fewer electoral colleges, less time, and more paperwork to access to the polls. That can make conservative statements like Arizona and Georgia in which Biden won by very little, thus causing a lipotimia to the Republicans of which they have not yet recovered, are inaccessible to the Democratic candidate, whoever it is.
But what if that democrat is not biden? The weight of age - 83 years in 2024 - can lead you to not attend, in a scenario that causes cold sweats to the Democratic Party, which believes, the current president is, with the limitations you want, your best candidate.
Without Biden, there are two names: the Vice President, Kamala Harris, and the Transport Secretary, Pete Buttigieg. Of them, 'a priori', the weakest is Harris. All the conspiratory theories that talked about the former senator was going to be made with the springs of the White House power and even forcing the resignation of Biden to be the president have fallen into the most absolute ridicule.
Biden, in a sample that it is much more awake than what it seems, has politically liquidated Harris. In turn, this, making gala of its proverbial superb, lack of opportunity, egocentrism, and organizational chaos, has not only buried her popularity at Trump's own levels but has made the 'Establishment' democrat.
That opens a way to Buttigieg. Young - will be 42 years old in 2024 -, centrist, technocrat, veteran war in Afghanistan, and educated with the highest academic distinctions, also has the capacity to attract the vote of the 'millennials' and 'generation z', two immense demographic groups that barely feel represented in the current American political gerontocracy, dominated by people as biden (78 years), Trump (75 years), the Chairperson president, Nancy Pelosi (81 years old), or the leader of the Senate, Chuck Schumer (71 years old).
But Buttigieg has a feature that introduces an element of uncertainty: he is married to a man, with whom he has just had a child. That not only takes you from the evangelical voters and from the Catholics, but also a key group for Democrats: African-Americans. All the polls of the 2020 elections, where Buttigieg was already presented to the White House with more than acceptable results, showed that the popularity of him 'punctured' between the black vote. And a Democrat can not win if that support, just like a Republican will never reach the White House if the evangelicals do not vote for him.
Thus, the precamient has begun. Harris's advisors have already announced that primary against Buttigieg would be "hard and difficult". And on Monday, Roger Stone, adviser and confidant of Donald Trump - who even forgave his sentence in prison for his involvement in the 'Russian plot' - launched a public message to the governor of Florida formerly in the Social Network of Ultraderecha Parler: " Ron Desantis will be committed, if he wins re-election in 2022, not abandoning Florida and not facing the highest president from Abraham Lincoln, Donald Trump? " There are three years left and the race through the White House already advances to every machine.
Date Of Update: 02 November 2021, 20:51
