The style of the new policy and its marketing, which gives both novice as veteran formations, has become the battle for the narrative in the stone vault of the political strategy . Pedro Sanchez and Pablo Iglesias will get rid about this as a tough election campaign in which it seems not to become loophole to the ideology or the management. Everything is already prepared.
PSOE and United we Can prepare to wage a campaign very different to the one that took place on the 28th of April. From allies to adversaries. Of potential partners of Government in April, a distrustful opponents to the stalking of a fishery election, the voter progressive . An electorate that will come to the polls, stuck by a negotiation process presided over by words such as mistrust, humiliation, inexperience or instability. The possible abstention in this bag of voters been concerned in many areas of the PSOE, as reported by ABC, from weeks ago. Therefore, one of the key election will be that the socialists will try to convince other constituencies more centrist.
The face-to-face between Sanchez and Churches will be very different from that of April . If an unlikely turn of script not compensated, we will embark from this week in nearly two months of election campaign informally. If then United we Can came to the general election very touched, now he does it with prospects that are not very comforting, but with the conviction that, this time yes, have a good speech.we Can rearms
for months the formation of Churches being licked still the wounds of the crisis opened by Íñigo Errejón after the defection of the former number two to be a candidate for the Community of Madrid by the hand of a platform next to Manuela Carmena. The output of one of the founders of Can and his so-called moderation was exposing the party to two elements fatal: the internal crises are a bad active election, and in addition they lost an attractive face for a profile of voters that could be attracted by a competitor on the rise: the PSOE.
Churches came to April 28, with the game broken and without a speech powerful , after months of no choice but to be force subsidiary of the PSOE. A Sanchez willing to use all the light bulbs and speakers institutional scope for cashing in on the exclusive action of the Government born of the motion of censure. The framework in which is developed the last election was exactly the one that wanted the PSOE: the agitation of the fear of "rights" and the presentation of Sanchez before the electorate as a single dam. Repeat this pattern with all its ingredients is, today, impossible. At a minimum, that will no longer be the only argument that can penetrate the 10 of November, and it is something that is concerned in the PSOE: "Those who think that we are going to continue surfing the wave of the photo of the plaza de Colón is wrong," says a leader.The weakness of the PSOE
The last movements of the leader of United we Can, Pablo Churches, have been more intended to point out the weaknesses of the strategy of the PSOE to negotiate a coalition that already looked very unlikely for the opposition socialist party. The game we Can for the discount seeks to shield his speech before an impending 10-N. From the party purple recognize that the latest offer of a coalition "could be considered" the year was for them a "win-win": if the PSOEaceptaba, we Can enter into the Government, and if they rejected a proposal as devalued, underlining once more that Sanchez does not want to negotiate and that they are the ones that strive to prevent other elections.
From the first negotiation to the endowment failed of July We have been reporting that the perpetrators of the crash are the socialists. Reproach that in July they heard about the offers of the president of the Government in functions by using the media (even the last of a Government bicolor) and for the fifth meeting between the secretaries general was not even the president who called Churches, but did someone from your staff.
Then, in August, the PSOE renounced the coalition and the leader of the socialist has avoided sitting down with the Can. is Neither has wanted to keep any conversation . Each slam of the PSOEle has written to the Churches a paragraph of your story. The leader Can take advantage of its journey, from the requirement of a proportional representation to the results to their gradual reduction in their prosteriores proposals. You can sell the "seriousness" that the PSOE denied: "We, by the responsibility of State and to guarantee stability, we are willing to make a proposal that is fair to we Can", he defended Churches the day before yesterday.
yes, within this strategy, United We will continue pressing to Sanchez to reach an agreement until "the last moment" , ready to be lowered more if needed. Yes, from the environment to the secretary-general underlined that there shall waive the requirement of a coalition Government or take a proposal that is wicked.
Assume that was enough with the "veto" of the Churches, after which give it a step back for be for Sanchez "the main stumbling block" to form a coalition. The sacrifice, the humiliation, the responsibility... will be cards we Can in their speeches against the PSOE: "I am willing to make a fool of me, but not to humble themselves to the 3.7 million voters who have voted", said a few days ago during an interview on TVE.Risk of demobilization
on the other hand, from the parliamentary group ensure that the PSOE of nothing will serve them to repeat the messages of the previous campaign into a new one. "What Agitarán the fear of the right after asking to abstain all these months?", asked someone from the confederal group this week. Amen to that in the environment of Churches believes that Sanchez would face in a hypothetical 10-N to the risk of losing the power of 28-for the "disaffection" and "demobilization" in the voter progressive that are causing the "inconsistencies" of the PSOE."What if the PSOE were worth of a coalition Government in July today, that offer has expired?", challenges the dome of the Can with insistence.
Since the party purple considered will not be very penalized for a repeat election because they maintained a line consistent during the negotiation, . However, they will have to explain with clarity a question unresolved with which they have to convince their potential electorate: why rejected offer of coalition July a vice-president and social portfolios of Health, Housing and Equality?Moderation and stability
Meanwhile, the PSOE started this course to the 10 of November being aware of that you need another speech. Although the strategists of The white house believe that "the electoral cycle remains favorable", there is no doubt that the appeal to fear of the right will not be as useful. And this by the attitude of Sanchez these months claiming the abstention of PP and Cs, and because the phenomenon of Vox has been resized to the floor. "I do not deny that there is some confusion among some voters," admitted a leader. While another insists that the PSOE has "the loyalty voting most high".
In the hard core of Moncloa and also among some major leaders in Ferraz are convinced that there will be a growth of the socialist party for the 10-N. But in the other levels of the party, the uncertainty is very high. The concern for abstention is the main risk: "A person of the left who is not a 'hooligan' tells us to fuck the two," explains one deputy who believes that the abstention will affect both PSOE as to United we Can. And that will give an opportunity to the right: "For the three right-wing is one day less", he adds.
All in the PSOE recognize now that Churches have a speech and that will be able to exploit "the story of the humiliation," says a socialist mayor. Among the optimists are those who believe that We will be penalized "for coming back to vote against a president socialist". However, it is intended that the potential growth has to come by the center. "We have to change the story but what story is Albert Rivera?", ask a leader.
hence it is understood that the socialists talk about, and more that will, moderation and stability as the cornerstones of your future campaign . Calcar in some way, the campaign of Mariano Rajoy in the repeat election of June 2016. Basically a variation of "or me or the chaos" inoculated day-to-day and that aims to make Sanchez a recipient of a vote would be useful both by his right hand as his left. The weak point of the campaign will be the that right now it is still more inexplicable. Why is the socialist party agreed to a coalition in July and not now? A thing as much as the other can lead to disaffected left and right. The steps taken in recent weeks show that Sanchez never wanted that formula. If that idea cala, the acting president can lose the vote useful progressive.
The key issue that should elucidate in November is this: does The recovery of the PSOE in April was about mimbres solid or built on a framework of exceptional difficult to repeat? Each one clings to the response that keeps them with hope. In the end, the only thing certain is that the confrontation between Pablo Iglesias and Peter Sanchez returns to be, and so it is from 2016, an element of uncertainty and instability for the Spanish political system.Updated Date: 15 September 2019, 07:01