The INE evidence that the Government inflated growth forecast: the economy rebounded by 5% by 2021

The Spanish economy grew 5% last year. It is the fact that the National Institute of Statistics (INE) has advanced this Friday, which in this way evidence tha

The INE evidence that the Government inflated growth forecast: the economy rebounded by 5% by 2021

The Spanish economy grew 5% last year. It is the fact that the National Institute of Statistics (INE) has advanced this Friday, which in this way evidence that the forecasts of the Government are totally inflated.

The estimate of the Ministry of Economy augured a rebound of 6.5%, figure that the Department led by Nadia Calviño has refused to reduce even though all estimates pointed to a sensibly lower data. Reality, effectively, has ended certifying a remarkable point and a half between the forecast of the Executive and what really happened in 2021. And if the growth data of almost 10% that the government initially augured initially, The difference is even more blushing.

In addition, the INE figure confirms that the recovery of the levels of gross domestic product (GDP) prior to the pandemic must be expected at least until the end of the year. This also moves away, and much, than the government promised.

Another thing is the evolution of tax revenues and the labor market. In these two cases, a better behavior is being recorded and, in fact, the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, advanced yesterday that 2021 closed with the greatest collection of history. Those data, she explained, show a "robust" economic behavior.

"And these are data, not forecasts," said Montero to subtract importance for projections such as the IMF or the Bank of Spain remain behind the officers. However, what has been known today are not projections but is a closed data of the year. Advanced, yes, so it could change as it has happened in previous quarters. It is very relevant that the data that is missing in most of the variables is December, that is, it is necessary to include the period in which the virus was uncontrolled, so that possible revision could be even down.

In any case, the fact that the rebound came to 5% and not remained below that level, such as pleading most of the agencies, it is because the behavior during the four quarter was better than initially expected. The Bank of Spain, for example, expected an advance of 1.6% in the last months of the year. Instead, the INE advances that "Spanish GDP registers a variation of 2.0% in the fourth quarter."

This advance occurred despite the fact that the consumption of households showed a worrying weakness. Factors such as inflation and distrust of families will seek key in this atony. Even so, the global data of consumption was 4.7%, which represents the greatest annual progress since 1999.

Also this annual growth of 5% of the GDP set is historic, since such an increase since 2000 was not recorded, however, this data must be contextualized as the rebound of the economy after the historical crash 2020. In that exercise, the GDP sank almost 11% as a consequence of the paralysis of the economy. Instead, Spain had already grown by 4.5% in 1999, and it grew by almost 4% in 2001, so the progress of 5.2% that was recorded in 2000 is framed in one of the best economic periods of history from the country.

After knowing all these data, the executive has preferred it focuses on what will happen in the current year. Thus, the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, José Luis Escrivá, has advanced that 2022 will be a year of "Most High" growth, greater than that of 2021.

"We entered the strong year in the labor market, with the deployment of the recovery plan, and the arrival of external tourism still lacks. There are growth levers for 2022 that have to take us to very high growths," he stressed in statements to Antena 3 Collected by Europe Press.

The official growth forecast for next year is 7%, a figure that does not share any organism or firm either. The International Monetary Fund, which confirmed its same week its figures, expected a growth of 4.9% for last year and augures 5.8% by 2021.

Date Of Update: 28 January 2022, 09:01

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