Spain will grow 4.5% this year and the economy will not be able to recover prior levels to Covid until, at least, the first quarter of 2023. It is the forecasts today published by the OECD, which represent a cut of more than Two points from 6.8% estimated in September and that, in addition, leave in evidence that the figures on which the government has built budgets are totally outdated.
Because in addition to that remarkable cut, the organism also reduces the rebound of the gross domestic product (GDP) for next year: it will be 5.5%, that is, more than one point less. And in 2023 the economy will begin to lose some vigor with an expected advance of 3.8%.
The main reason for this hard setback is the negative review that the National Institute of Statistics (INE) made of growth registered in the second quarter of this year. The unexpected and historical cut substantially changed the panorama, unleashing a cascade of negative reviews that include the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the Bank of Spain, which has already advanced that it will undertake a significant reduction in its estimates.
All this draws a context that moves away from the government's discourse, in which Spain is not the locomotive of growth after the historic economic collapse of 2020 and that underlines the slowness of the economy to recover. If the Spanish situation is compared with that of Italy, for example, it is observed that the country chaired by Mario Draghi will recover the Pre-Covid levels and at the beginning of 2022, while France will do so at the end of this exercise and Portugal, in the middle of next.
The analysts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also cite the need for consumption to pull the economy, inflation and the opportunity representing European funds. The community 70,000 million are key to Spain, and there are not a few doubts about the government's ability to take out the greatest benefit.
The OECD includes in the global forecasts that its unemployment and deficit estimate for period 2021-2023 presented on Wednesday. On the first point, the expected evolution of unemployment is as follows: 15% This year, 14.2% next and 2023 will still be 13.6%.
Regarding budget diversion, in 2023 the data will still be at 4.2%, while public debt will hardly be reduced from 120% to 116%.
However, neither the forecast of the OECD nor that of the rest of the institutions that have reduced and corrected below those of the government change the Speech of the Executive. The data is not corrected and followed in the strategy of optimism, to launch the message of economic reactivation, although it will be slower than expected by the Moncloa.
"What is trying to do the Government of Spain is to face the future on the solid basis of the creation of employment and economic growth with a recovery that is gaining momentum according to the year," said Pedro Sánchez in an institutional statement without admitting Press questions, during your official trip to Egypt. "In 2022, the rhythm of growth is going to accelerate, we are going to be one of the main EU economies that most expand," he added. The head of the executive appeals to the data of unemployment and affiliates to social security, to the creation of employment and the increase of affiliates.
Date Of Update: 01 December 2021, 09:51
