The gross domestic product (GDP) of Spain is far from returning to the previous levels to the Covid, something that at all will take this year as the Vice President of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño, and that, even, could be delayed until 2023. So It finds the prediction of GDP in real time that the independent authority of fiscal liability (AIROF), which evidence that, despite the jerk of employment, the economy is still five point below the close of 2019.
The agency that directs Cristina Herrero yesterday updated this measurement, incorporating precisely the positive affiliation data to social security and after the previous day I would have added energy consumption. And the result is that, on the basis 100 of the fourth quarter of 2019, the economy is at 95 points, that is, follows 5% below the previous level at the beginning of the pandemic.
The situation of GDP contrasts with these good figures that the labor market is exhibiting, and that it has allowed affiliation to reach the levels prior to the crisis. It is a disagreement that had never occurred before in the Spanish economy, and less than such a remarkable way. In the economic sphere, and in the Around itself, this phenomenon has generated a certain bewilderment and points to protection measures such as the temporary employment regulation files (ERTE) as one of the reasons that explain it. In the business world there is also a possible outcrop of employment and submerged activity but, in any case, what is evidence is that the economy has been left behind.
And in that slow recovery, Spain has been outlined from the European Union. Countries like Greece are already even above previous levels to Covid, and powers such as Germany, France and Italy will also do so soon.
The Spanish economy, on the other hand, will have to wait at least until mid-2022. This is what the Airof says and also the Bank of Spain, which will sit down between the second and third quarter of next year. And that, of course, as long as no negative surprises occur, that inflation problems and bottlenecks are not aggravated and, of course, European plans develop adequately.
The fiscal authority itself, for example, lowered the last week the expected growth for this year to 5.5%, while raising the next year at 6.3%. Of this last figure, 2.5 points correspond to the European plans, so any setback in this area, something that on the other hand to be very possible, would sensitively reduce that data and delay more recovery.
All the figures so far exposed show the unleashed or, at least, difficultly complimable that result the forecasts that the government plastered in the macroeconomic table. But if there is any doubt, the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE), which is the Tank Tank of CEOE, stressed this situation with a very revealing data: the economy would have to grow 9% in the last quarter of the year so that it is They completed the official estimates.
This was expressed by the president of IEE, Íñigo Fernández de Mesa, who along with Gregorio Izquierdo, general director of the same body and former president of the National Institute of Statistics (INE), form one of the most powerful and successful studies of the country. In his opinion, "the macroeconomic picture of the government is, on all, too optimistic, and IEE's estimate is that the economy does not grow even 5% in the present exercise. Spain is "one of the countries that is recovering their level of GDP prior to the pandemic with greater slowness," said Fernández de Mesa, who was Secretary of State for Economy in the Ministry who led Luis de Guindos and all this moderation, he explained during Its examination to the draft State Budgets of the State (PGE) for 2022, will be noted exceeded in public accounts because "less economic growth, less income".
Date Of Update: 03 November 2021, 22:23
