The keys of the general election of 10-N

I do believe in the encuestas123 seats

Are the seats that you obtained Pedro Sanchez in April, the same that Mariano Rajoy in 2015 and that led to the repetition of elections in 2016.

4 elections in 4 years

will Be the fourth election in four years. No country in the world has had so many elections in 4 years, with the exception of Greece between 2012 and 2015. Nothing guarantees that we will not have to re-elections in the year 2020 and we have a 5x5.

511 days

will Be the days that will have been in functions for the government of Spain since the elections of 2015, by adding the period of functioning government of Rajoy and Sanchez. is Assumes that Spain will have been in functions 40% since the elections of 2015 .

Portugal

Meanwhile, in the neighboring country, only there will have been an election date, in these 4 years. Will be on the 6th of October and everything points to a landslide victory of the Socialist Party in power.

There is also governed by the law D'hont that does not punish both the fragmentation of the electoral , because the average size of constituency is 11 seats against 6 for Spain. The other difference is that in Portugal there are no parties regionalist or nationalist.

Teruel Exists

12.000 are the votes that need the platform Teruel Exists that he has chosen to stand for election to get a certificate at the Congress of Deputies.

During the two-party system the party that wins the third deputy of Teruel ruled in Spain . It is not disposable that you get act by the province of aragon.

Barrier of 3%

While in Teruel will be necessary to 12,000 votes to have a deputy, Madrid or Barcelona will require around 100,000 and 85,000, respectively . Are the only constituencies where the barrier of 3% is effective, in the rest of the provinces to overcome the threshold of entry does not guarantee a seat.

Effect Errejón

One million two hundred thousand votes are the ones that need the training led by Íñigo Errejón to form a parliamentary group of their own. Effectively to achieve group formations need to, or well exceed the 15 per cent in the constituency where they are present or 5 percent in the State as a whole. Overcome the 5 per cent it is more easy and does not require it to do so in all provinces. In fact, we surely don't do this in order not to fragment the vote of the left-how yes is doing it right.

the Matthew Effect

Is the effect of the Spanish electoral law due to the law D'hont that premium to the most voted, but most of all, the size of the constituency. "That you will give him in abundance, but the one who has not, even what he has will be taken away" (Gospel of Matthew 13, 12). For geeks of mathematics the Matthew effect can be modelled in function of the historic election. Each seat is a function of the natural logarithm of the percentage of votes multiplied by 1.2 plus a constant of 5.3. The rule does not fail.

Seats per point

The match that most took their vows in April was that of Miguel Ángel Revilla, the Party's Regionalist Cantabrian, to achieve a record with only 0.2% of the votes. At the other extreme is the Compromís that only managed one mp for each point of vote valid. The second party further punished by the electoral law is VOX.

VOX

it Is, without doubt, one of the tables of the salvation of Pedro Sanchez. Without the fragmentation of the right would not have dared to go back to the polls. In fact, for the first time since 1989 the centre-right has optimized worse your vote to the left . The fragmentation of the vote centre-right in three options also came as a result of which the formations are nationalists and regionalists were the best will optimise your vote.

362 votes

Were they separated in the province of Álava to the Popular Party Bildu and gave back to the training wing nationalists, the last of the four seats alaveses. Those 362 votes less are the that allow you to Pedro Sánchez to blame Paul Married in the endowment session: "Look at your base: zero mps elected by the basque society". Certainly 24.385 votes of the PP, the 7.082 Citizens or 5.608 Vox, translated into zero seats: is the Matthew effect in version alavesa.

1+1+1 = an absolute majority of the PSOE in the Senate

The electorate learns the electoral law to force to see its consequences. In the past elections of April was fulfilled with pinpoint accuracy the analysis anticipated that the division of vote centre-right in the Senate only benefited to the left .

Zero

the women Were candidates for president of the government of the parties of the national level with parliamentary representation in the past general.

Two

Are the times that will be extended to the budgets of Rajoy, the most long-lasting Democracy.

Five

they Are the ministers of Health who has had the government in the last 4 years, which shows the extreme instability and volatility of the current political landscape.

One million six hundred thousand new voters

In these moments something more than a million six hundred thousand voters in April expressed their desire not to go back to the polls. Are mainly voters moderates who voted Citizens or the PSOE and traditional voters that were activated in April for fear of the Vox.

a hundred thousand interviews of the CIS -

When the end of the year the CIS will have made more than one hundred thousand interviews of vote for general elections, forty thousand more than any previous government in a whole legislature of four years.

pre-election CIS

The next CIS barometer made in September will be the last with the method Tezanos manipulation of vote before the election.

In the pre-election October will be over the veda to manipulate and make an estimate that is more scientific as it did in the past general elections.

Poland

The only country in Europe, together with Spain, with an institute that estimated vote depending on the government.

Win for losing

The fragmentation of the vote can lead to formations that improve results lose political power and vice versa. The real winners of the elections did not meet election night.

Narcissus MichavilaArticulista Opinion Date Of Update: 23 September 2019, 14:00