The tourist sector reviews its forecasts by the unusual rebound of the Spanish demand

The tourist engine has recovered this summer part of the strength it had before the pandemic, especially thanks to an "unusual national demand", and 3.4% high

The tourist sector reviews its forecasts by the unusual rebound of the Spanish demand

The tourist engine has recovered this summer part of the strength it had before the pandemic, especially thanks to an "unusual national demand", and 3.4% higher than the summer of 2019, with growth of 4.2% in hotel overnight stays. In a normal summer the national tourist consumption supposes about 22,000 million, but this year there has been about 9,000 million spending on trips that are usually abroad that have stayed at home. There are zones, such as Cádiz, with double-digit growth compared to 2019.

As a consequence of this intensity in the rebound of the Spanish demand, the sector has reviewed the tourist GDP of this period (the most important of the year) at eight points with respect to the estimated in the month of June, with a recovery of 73 % of the 2019 tourism activity (42,000 million euros), but 27% below the levels. This summer period (July-September) has ceased to enter 15,740 million euros with respect to the figures of 2019, according to the Balance of EXCELTUR, tourist lobby that brings together the main companies in the sector.

"It is a promising scenario regarding the recovery trend, which is being tremendously unequal, asymmetric and very far from the 2019 levels," said José Luis Zoreda, Vice President of Excellent.

The expectations from here to what is left of the year are better than expected, which has led to review three points up to the expectations of the year. 87,000 million will be entered, 56% of what entered 2019. "The worst has passed for the sector. It is not to throw the bells on the fly, but we believe that these tendencies of recovery improvement are not going to be reversed," he says .

This rebound of the trend "has been exclusively the result of the unusual rebound of the Spanish demand," said Zoreda, which recalls that extrajection demand is still at level 48% below that of 2019.

This progressive recovery is very unequal and varies a lot depending on the branches of activity, with some, such as travel agencies or the air sector, even with falling falls of 79% or 63%, respectively, against the service sector , which barely gives 6.5%.

In terms of employment, this improvement is also appreciated, because the creation of employment in September was only 13% below than in the same month of 2019. 27% below if it is considered the entire quarter. Of course, there are 169,000 workers who have lost their jobs. The tourist branches still concentrate half of the workers in Erte.

It has been given, however, a paradoxical situation, and is that, before the uncertainty that the pandemic has created in these activities, many workers have become other sectors, which has made tourist entrepreneurs "have difficulty finding workers Formed ". "This had not happened to us before the pandemic," Oscar Perelli, director of Excellent Studies.

"This has been one of the most difficult trimesters to explain, because the realities and the results are enormously disparate, by regions, sub-sectors, and with companies that fall well the temporal and others with greater anguish to survive," says Zoreda, who has warned that "do not stop climbing cost levels, so there is no parallel between the improvement of sales and results, because these costs grow very remarkable." "The evolution of income has been higher than that of the margins by this increase in costs," Perelli said.

Looking ahead of the year, the volatility and the fact that it reserves more and more at the last minute "complicates being able to make forecasts". The sector entrepreneurs do improve expectations for this four quarter. In Canarias it is expected to reach 80% of the activity in 2019. The eruption of the island of La Palma "is not having an incidence on the evolution of business reserves and expectations."

"We anticipate in the coming months a process of mergers, concentrations, to gain economies of scale and earn synergies that allow companies to compete," said Zoreda, who believes that 2022 will start with many less companies. In what we carry from pandemic, they have been lost 154,000 million euros.

Updated Date: 08 October 2021, 12:46

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