A look at a hot autumn: party atmosphere on the stock exchange - can that go well?

Fear of recession, weakness in China, monster energy crisis: the conditions for a good stock market year in 2022 are extremely bad.

A look at a hot autumn: party atmosphere on the stock exchange - can that go well?

Fear of recession, weakness in China, monster energy crisis: the conditions for a good stock market year in 2022 are extremely bad. But in the summer there will be celebrations again, and for the past two months the stock markets have been going up. How does that fit together?

Anyone looking at the DAX in mid-August might get the idea that things have changed for the better. In early summer it was still 12,400 points, now in midsummer it is almost 14,000 points. The US technology exchange also knows only one way: steeply upwards. Within a few weeks, the Nasdaq Composite rose by a good 20 percent.

So-called meme stocks like Gamestop or Bed, Bath

The turnaround in interest rates is in full swing and there is a big question mark over whether a soft landing in the USA is possible without a recession. How does that fit together?

Most recently, the effects on the stock market were "above all a covering of short positions and thus a so-called short squeeze," says Stefan Riss from the fund house Acatis, describing a special feature that is currently driving prices. In addition, turnover on the stock market has recently been very low. In such situations, it is enough for upward swings when hardly anyone wants to sell and those who had previously bet on falling prices have to cover their positions again.

That drives the listings. At the end of the summer, however, comes the endurance test, both in the USA and in Germany. Because the gas crisis, raw material prices, inflation, interest rate hikes, the political environment with midterm elections in the USA and the Ukraine war as well as recession worries need to be managed.

Also the big S

Put warrants are cheaper to have when the fear premium is down. This is also reflected in the Fear

Negative surprises are possible, and anyone who wants to tighten their portfolio for the last third of the year should do so now. Jürgen Molnar sees a major problem for Germany in particular in the fall: "You can duck away from many raw material bottlenecks, but this is not possible with gas supplies. Recent concerns in this area could quickly cost the DAX several hundred points again," says the capital market strategist.

If you want to secure your portfolio, you have good chances with put options with a term of March 2023 or June 2023. On the DAX you choose the WKN VX887D with a base of 13,500, on the S

Daniel Saurenz operates the Feingold Research stock exchange portal.

This article does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell individual shares or other financial products. No liability is assumed for the correctness of the data.