"Fukushima changes everything," said today's CSU boss Markus Söder in 2011 after the nuclear disaster in Japan. Söder and his predecessor Horst Seehofer pushed ahead with the nuclear phase-out, grid expansion and the construction of replacement power plants were paralyzed. The consequences for the Bavarian power supply are now visible.
Munich (dpa/lby) - According to estimates by the Bavarian energy industry, Bavaria's dependence on electricity imports will grow in the coming years despite the expansion of renewable energies. If the last Bavarian nuclear power plant Isar 2 goes off the grid on April 15, the secured power generation capacity in Bavaria will fall to 9.2 gigawatts according to the calculations of the electricity generators association VBEW. At peak times, however, up to 12.7 gigawatts are consumed in Bavaria.
"It seems a bit strange that our proud federal state is dependent on electricity imports to a considerable extent, especially in winter, when it could become scarce everywhere," said VBEW Managing Director Detlef Fischer.
For its calculation, the association assumed the power of wind and solar energy to be zero. Since there are days with "dark doldrums" when neither the wind is blowing nor the sun is shining, wind power and solar energy do not count towards the guaranteed capacity.
In the meantime, the theoretical output of the Bavarian power generation, at over 33 gigawatts, significantly exceeds the maximum requirement. "However, the majority of this output is not available reliably, but is subject to weather and seasonal fluctuations or, in the case of photovoltaics, fails completely at night," the association explained.
In the next few years, the VBEW does not expect any significant improvement in the guaranteed output". After the Isar 2 nuclear power plant, the coal-fired power plant in Zolling not far from Freising is also to be shut down in 2025.
Two reserve gas-fired power plants in Leipheim and Vohburg are to go online to produce electricity during peak demand. According to the VBEW, this will also increase dependence on natural gas for power generation. If there is a lack of gas during a dark period, there is a high probability of a "power shortage" in Bavaria as a result, warned Fischer.
At the same time, according to the VBEW, the Bavarian demand for electricity is expected to increase significantly. If one day there are 500,000 electric cars in Bavaria whose batteries are charged at the same time, 5.5 gigawatts of additional power would be required. Added to this is the need for heating heat pumps, which more and more homeowners are having installed. According to VBEW, half a million heat pumps in simultaneous operation would require a further 1.5 gigawatts.
