After a long downward slide, the corona incidence in Bavaria is currently stagnating at just over 100. However, the low value compared to the previous months has little meaning and other numbers are already pointing upwards again.
Munich (dpa / lby) - The corona incidence in Bavaria has been stagnating for a few days at just over 100. On Saturday, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute, it was 109.1. Although this is the lowest value of all German federal states, the clear downward trend of the past few weeks has now largely come to a standstill. Other figures even show a slight increase.
"Due to the relaxed test strategy, the seven-day incidence has largely lost its 'seismograph function'," says Clemens Wendtner. The chief physician of infectiology at the Munich Clinic Schwabing treated the first German corona patients in 2020. Many infected people are now "under the radar" because only a rapid antigen test is carried out and they therefore do not appear in the statistics. "So the number of unreported cases is enormous, estimated at least a factor of ten," says the expert.
He therefore considers the hospitalization incidence to be more resilient - and this is rising slightly again, he says. "Of course, it is not possible to distinguish between patients who are hospitalized with or because of Covid," says the expert. "But it is also an indicator of how high the burden is in clinics and, last but not least, for the employees there." Although one is a long way from previous peak values, "but the summer wave of 2022 showed how quickly values can change," he emphasizes.
Wendtner is cautious for the rest of the winter. A look at the USA, where a subline called BQ.1.1 already accounts for half of the new infections, worries him. The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten had recently pointed out BQ.1.1. Due to additional mutations, "the virus obviously escapes the immune system relatively well," says Wendtner. So you can get sick despite a previous infection or vaccination.
Even then you benefit from the vaccination, emphasizes the doctor, "because the course of the disease is weakened according to the current state of knowledge". But there is a problem for people who cannot be successfully vaccinated, such as cancer patients or organ transplant recipients. So far, it has been possible to administer protective antibodies to them, "but unfortunately these fail against BQ.1.1".
Antiviral drugs are still effective, "but they have to be swallowed shortly after the infection begins," says Wendtner. "In this respect, we should still be careful and not drop all protective covers, not least masks, prematurely - if not for our own protection, then at least as external protection with a view to the weakest, who could otherwise be hit particularly hard in the coming winter."
