First rule when writing about Bitcoin: Don't write about Bitcoin.
The story of the most well-known cryptocurrency in the world is moving at an astonishing pace. Soon, its followers will be lining up to tell you that you are wrong.
We must write about it, for the past 24 hours have been a disaster for cryptocurrency's grande dame - even Bitcoin standards.
Here, I will concentrate on Bitcoin. But, if you are a crypto-follower, you'll be aware that the entire market is in trouble.
Bitcoin trades at $21, 974 (PS18,000) as I write this. It has fallen 25% in the last five days to its lowest value in 18 months. It feels like it was a lifetime ago when it reached its peak value of nearly $70,000 in November.
All the charts are red and heading in one direction: downwards.
Experts believe this is due to the global climate. Things aren't looking great in crypto.
Inflation is on the rise, interest rates are rising, and living costs are increasing. There are signs of a recession. Stock markets are also wobbling, with the US S&P 500 currently in a bearish market (down 20% compared to its recent peak).
Even big investors have less money. Many ordinary investors, not corporations or hedge-fund owners, have less money to invest in any investment.
Many people feel that an investment in cryptocurrency, which is volatile and unpredictable, is too risky.
It is not regulated or protected by the financial authorities. If you use your savings to invest it, it loses value, and you lose access to it, your money is gone.
Two smaller-profile, but still significant coins crashed last month - which shook confidence in the market.
People are more likely to decide to sell.
Bitcoin's value drops if more people sell it. This is because Bitcoin's value is tied to its desireability. Because they can see Bitcoin's value falling, more people will sell... and so on.
Bitcoin, unlike other traditional assets, has no intrinsic value to support it - there is no bricks and mortar, revenue stream, or underlying business. Katie Martin, FT Markets editor, says this.
She tells me that the price is determined by how many people will buy it from you.
"This is when it becomes scary for people. If enough people head towards the exit, there's no ceiling. It can trade at $10,000 tomorrow if there are enough people who give up or force them to sell.
This is the Bitcoin background, which is already challenging. Then again, these are the developments of the last 24 hours.
These two situations caused panic. Imagine being unable to withdraw cash from your bank suddenly, or hearing that other people could. Imagine being at the cash machine in record time with everyone else. This would cause more chaos and panic.
It is important to remember that in order for Bitcoin to stabilize, those who have it would need it to be kept and that others would need it to be bought again. This has been done before.
Crypto enthusiasts will tell you that now is a great moment to buy because it's inexpensive - but you have to wait and see it turn the corner. This is the way it has always worked.
I was tagged by one of them earlier.
Attracting new money is easy with the persuasive stories of people who "got rich quick" and high-profile endorsements by celebrities.
Elon Musk has been prolific in tweeting about his love for crypto. Tesla, his electric-car manufacturer, invested $1.5bn last year in Bitcoin.
However, investment advisors warn of the need to exercise extreme caution.
Altaf Kassam, State Street Advisors managing Director, stated that "truly it's somewhere only those who are brave should enter." Altaf Kassam spoke on BBC Radio 5 Live's Wake Up To Money program.
Speaking of brave, Matt Damon, a Hollywood A-lister, starred in a crypto ad featuring the slogan "Fortune favours brave" in October 2021. It was viewed 28,000,000 times on YouTube and Twitter.
The "brave" person who bought Bitcoin at the time the ad was published probably won't feel they were treated any "favours". It was three times more valuable then than it is today.
