Statistics is a very reliable science and is usually very accurate in its predictions. For this reason, the repetition of seven of the eight numbers that make up the winning combination in Bonoloto, in two draws carried out just 48 hours apart, has led many users to doubt the legality of the results.
Last Thursday, March 9, the winning combination of the Bonoloto was: 8, 21, 23, 40, 43 and 47, with 26 as complementary and 7 as refund. The curious thing is that in the draw on Saturday the 11th, the numbers are almost traced: 8, 21, 23, 28, 40 and 47, also with 26 and 7 as complementary and refund. This last result also had a first category winner in Moncada (Valencia), who won 2,592,535 euros.
What do the statistics say about it? The mathematician Santi García Cremades explains that "the probability that you win the full lottery ticket is 1 in 700 million (there are 685 million possibilities), so it is less likely than almost no draw or probability that we think". Without the refund , he adds, the probability that he would touch would be 1 in 68.6 million possibilities. In the case at hand, the draws of March 9 and 11, five of the six numbers of the winning combination have coincided, not all six, but the complementary and the refund have also coincided: "Having those numbers of 9 March fixed, the probability of winning on March 11 would have been 1 in 140 million," estimates the mathematician.
But the most interesting idea is to think about how many chances there are of the same winning combination coinciding on two days in the Bonoloto: "And that is somewhat counter-intuitive, we think that they are very few, but no," he points out. In a year, what has happened now would happen with a 0.5% option, 1 in 200 years. It's unlikely but not as unlikely as we might think," she says.
Many Bonoloto players and Twitter users have not hesitated to label as "suspicious" that the winning combinations coincide almost 100% in such a short time. Others see it directly as a "fraud", and even provide mathematical data on the low probability that these results occur.
From State Lotteries and Gambling they have assured EL MUNDO that this is nothing more than a coincidence. "The numbers, as a draw ends, all have the same chances of coming out, even if it is an identical combination to that of the previous day," they comment from the organization.
"The BonoLoto Draws are held from Monday to Sunday at 9:30 p.m. in the State Lottery and Betting Draw Room, they are public, they can be seen live until full capacity is reached and they are also broadcast live on the web of Lotteries", tell from State Lotteries and Gambling.
They also confirm that each draw is made "before a notary public" appointed by the AGE, in addition to "a president and a member" and that in "each draw a record of the draw is made."
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
