One week before the first round of the presidential election in Madagascar, the President of the National Assembly requested, Thursday, November 9, the “suspension” of the vote, already postponed once, in a tense context of regular demonstrations by the opposition for more than a month. The camp of the outgoing president, Andry Rajoelina, 49, a candidate for his own succession, immediately rejected this request, considered “far-fetched”: “There is no reason why the elections should not be held on November 16,” Mr Rajoelina’s campaign spokesperson, Lalatiana Rakotondrazafy, told AFP.

The Indian Ocean island has been shaken for weeks by a fierce electoral battle between the Rajoelina camp and a dozen opposition candidates who denounce a plot aimed at securing a second term for the outgoing president.

The President of the Assembly, Christine Razanamahasoa, is leading a mediation attempt. The mediation group “firmly asks the authorities to suspend the presidential election,” she said during a press conference Thursday evening. “The conditions for a peaceful, credible election accepted by all are not met,” she added. The suspension of a presidential election is not provided for by Malagasy law and must be subject to government agreement to be effective.

The first round, initially scheduled for November 9, had already been postponed for a week last month following the injury of a candidate during one of the opposition demonstrations, several of which were dispersed by the police with tear gas. The High Constitutional Court, the highest court in the country, had imposed a postponement to ensure “equality of opportunity for candidates”.

Thirteen contenders are in the running. Eleven opposition candidates came together in a collective to denounce an “institutional coup” and demand a “fair and equitable” vote. The opponents, however, do not form a coalition and are running individually in the presidential race.

Protesters injured, opponents arrested

At the end of June, the press revealed that Mr. Rajoelina had been naturalized French on the sly in 2014, creating controversy. According to his detractors, the president lost his Malagasy nationality by applying for French nationality and therefore cannot govern or stand for election. But the courts rejected outright, in September, three appeals from the opposition demanding the invalidation of Mr. Rajoelina’s candidacy “for lack of Malagasy nationality”.

Since the beginning of October, the collective of opponents has called for demonstrations, particularly on the Place du 13-Mai, in Antananarivo, a symbolic place and scene of political protests on the island. The gatherings, officially banned, were regularly dispersed by the police. A “tolerance” was recently applied by the authorities, but the emblematic square remained impregnable. And a new attempt to invest it on Saturday resulted in renewed tension in the streets of the capital. Several demonstrators have been injured in recent weeks and opponents briefly arrested.

So far, most of the collective’s candidates have refused to campaign until the conditions for a “democratic” election are met. Around sixty Malagasy civil society organizations and unions also called for the “cancellation” of the first round, warning of “an even harsher and even violent crisis” if the vote was maintained.

The President of the Assembly also called on the international community to “take responsibility and not remain spectators”. Eight countries and organizations, including the United States and the European Union (EU), expressed Thursday, in a joint statement, “their deep concern following the violent incidents of recent days.” They had previously declared that they were following the preparation of the vote with “the greatest vigilance” and denounced excessive use of force against the opposition.

Andry Rajoelina came to power in 2009 following a mutiny that chased out Marc Ravalomanana. Under pressure from the international community, he gave up running in 2013 but was elected in 2018.