Elections The government's Law and Justice party wins the Polish general elections, according to exit polls

The parliamentary elections held this Sunday in Poland have opened a gap for change

Elections The government's Law and Justice party wins the Polish general elections, according to exit polls

The parliamentary elections held this Sunday in Poland have opened a gap for change. The governmental Law and Justice party (PiS) is emerging as the most voted force, but according to exit polls it is very far from the absolute majority and its natural partner, the extreme right, does not guarantee it the parliamentary majority that it would have. the opposition coalition. Projections give PiS a range of between 35% and 36.8% or the equivalent of 200 seats out of the 460 in Parliament. Konfederacja (Confederation of Freedom and Independence) would have obtained 6.2% of the votes 12 seats.

In contrast, the Civic Coalition (CO), led by the former president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, would obtain between 31.6% of the votes or 163 seats, 34 more than it had. This gives it a wide margin of maneuver, since together with the center-right Third Way party, which would achieve 55 seats, and Nueva Izquierda, with 30, they would add 248 seats.

Exit polls in Poland usually have a margin of error of 2%, so no major changes are expected as the scrutiny progresses. The official results, however, will not be known until Tuesday, once the vote cast abroad is computed and in Germany alone there are 600,000 Poles with the right to vote.

The first images of the election night on Polish television from PiS headquarters showed the party's head, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, along with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and other members of the Government celebrating the prospects of a victory.

Minutes later, cameras showed an exultant Tusk proclaiming at party headquarters that "democracy has won... This is the end of the PiS government."

If the recount does not alter the poll forecasts, President Andrez Duda will entrust the formation of the government to the party with the most votes. But the round of contacts will be brief for PiS because, in principle, the only party with which it has some affinity is Konfederacja, a nationalist-libertarian formation with representation in Parliament, now led by 36-year-old businessman Slawomir Mentzen. His speech coincides with PiS, although it is more radical. Mentzen wants "no Jews, no homosexuals, no abortion, no taxes, no European Union." Konfederacja, which is not closed to an alliance with PiS, wants to drastically cut social benefits and abolish pension insurance. It also follows an anti-Ukrainian nationalist line.

"If the president entrusts the formation of a government to the candidate of the winning party, which in this case is PiS, we will try to build a stable government," outgoing Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told state broadcaster.

Only in the event that Konfederacja fails to gather the seats that PiS needs to remain in power will Tusk be able to maneuver. The alliance with the "Third Way" is natural and one of the leaders of the "New Left", Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, has already said that his party was willing to ally with the CO. With its radical criticism of the Catholic Church and its plans to expand abortion law, the New Left has targeted voters for whom Tusk is too conservative and therefore ineligible.

The repetition of the legislature by PiS after an apocalyptic electoral campaign, presented as an existential fight for the soul of the fifth most populous country in the EU, would bury the will for change of millions of Poles. PiS has little left to do to destroy Poland and undermine the rule of law without leaving the European Union.

The outlook is no less bleak if there is a change of Government. If the opposition comes to power, Tusk will find himself surrounded by the courts and institutions controlled by PiS and a reluctant president. Without dismantling the system developed by PIS and it is a spider web, Tusk will not be able to do much.

The victory of PiS would undoubtedly cause great disappointment in different European capitals and in Berlin. The attacks on Germany have been constant. In addition to reviving historical disputes, the PIS has not stopped raising new complaints and accusations against its neighbors. He has criticized them in all areas and at all levels, from their social model to their international policy, in addition to modeling the European Union as a "fourth Reich" whose main objective is to prevent the economic development of Poland.

According to the Polish press, "German" has been one of the ten most repeated words used as an "insult" in the electoral campaign, and one of the most frequent ways to disqualify the opposition leader, "Herr Tusk." The most prone to anti-German rhetoric has been the leader of the PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, although Morawiecki has also taken this path and demanded, like his boss, the payment of war reparations.

The Civic Coalition's speech has focused on the need to recover Poland's international prestige and mend its relations with the European Union, for which it would have been necessary to undo the government's reforms in the judicial field and restore the democratic institutions that have suffered. considerable wear and tear since PiS came to power in 2015.

The democratic and pro-European forces will have to wait for the count and the European Commission eventually prepare for another four years of disagreements with Warsaw. Poland has a rapidly growing economy, is well equipped militarily and plays a key role in supporting Ukraine, but Brussels will not turn a blind eye and laxly apply the conditions for accessing European funds and in the case of Poland they remain blocked .