"Melenchon Prime Minister". The strategy of the New People's Ecological and Social Union, Nupes, of creating this slogan will it bear fruit? Just hours before the end the official campaign for this round of legislative elections, Friday, June 10, at midnight, both the Nupes (the presidential majority) and the presidential majority were tied in the polls. A survey by Sopra Steria for Radio France and France Televisions published Thursday, June 9 shows that the left-wing union is at the top in terms of voter intentions.
La Nupes has 28% of the intentions, which is 0.5 points more than the June 3 to 6, survey. Together!, which brings together the presidential majority (the MoDem and Horizons), is just ahead (27%, -1 point). The National Rally (RN), which won 19.5%, came in third place.
Participation could range from 44% to 48%. It could break a new record, as abstention was 51.3% in 2017.
You should take the results of the polls with a grain. They are only a snapshot of voter intentions. The latter however show that the dynamic is on Nupes' side.
An Ifop poll on LCI from June 1 shows that the presidential majority is slightly ahead (27%), ahead the left-wing coalition (25%), and the National Rally (21%). Ensemble has been overtaken by Nupes, with a score that has gotten tighter over the past weeks. In some surveys. The left-wing union was credited with 25% in the June 1 Elabe Poll for BFMTV [PDF], and is now neck and neck with both the presidential majority (24.5%), and the RN (22.2%).
Nupes and Together! They are now in a pocket-handkerchief: According to an Ipsos/Cevipof poll published Wednesday, June 8, 2016, the Nupes and the presidential majority are nearly equal. Together! Together! The National Rally loses one point, placing its score at 20.
The second round ended on Sunday, June 19, and polling institutes believe that the presidential party or its allies might not be able meet the 289 deputies needed to hold an absolute majority at the National Assembly. Harris gives Ensemble between 285 to 335 seats. Ifop anticipates 250-290 seats.
According to the poll by Sopra Steria, June 9, Nupes could win 175 to 215 of the 577 seats at the National Assembly. They could win between 260-300 seats. Between 20 and 50 RNs would be available.
France 24, however, is reminded by Brice Teinturier (deputy director of Ipsos), of the "fragility” of these projections. He warns that "it all depends on the reports" between the two rounds. "40-50 seats [qui] can rip off from one block to the next."
These results could put into doubt the possibility of the macronists obtaining an absolute majority in Assembly. A YouGov poll was conducted for HuffPost June 6 and 7. Only 31% of respondents (all tendencies included) think that Emmanuel Macron will win the 289 deputies needed. If the Assembly had a relative majority, supporters of the Head would have to look for opposition deputies to vote on the bills.
