Conservatives and liberals are neck and neck after legislative news on Sunday in Bulgaria, an election also marked by a rise in the pro-Russian camp in the shadow of the war in Ukraine.
This is the worst-case scenario, estimates Evelina Slavkova, an analyst at the research firm Trend: "the closer the results are, the harder it will be to form a stable government", she explained on the Nova Television channel, as this Balkan country voted for the fifth time in two years.
The conservative Gerb party of former Prime Minister Boïko Borissov is credited with a very slight lead (from 24 to 26%) over the liberal list led by the former centrist leader Kiril Petkov (around 23/24%), according to projections published in the evening by four polling institutes on the basis of partial counts.
Official figures will not be known until later in the week.
Far from the hopes born of the wave of anti-corruption demonstrations in the summer of 2020, this state of 6.5 million inhabitants, the poorest in the EU, is sinking into a costly political crisis unprecedented since the end communism in 1990.
Since the fall of Boïko Borissov after a decade in power, the various parties have been unable to build a lasting coalition.
A stagnation accentuated by the conflict in Ukraine in a society historically and culturally close to Moscow, which is torn over the aid to be provided to kyiv.
The young pro-Russian ultra-nationalist formation Vazrajdane (Renaissance) took advantage of this geopolitical context to continue its ascent: it won 13 to 14% of the vote, against 10% in the October ballot.
It refuses any delivery of arms to Kiev and openly defends the Kremlin's ideology, as do the PSB socialists (9 to 10%), heir to the former Communist Party which once ruled the country.
Abstention was still very high on Sunday, although less than during the previous vote: the turnout is estimated at only 40%.
And those who moved said they were at the end of their patience.
"I wish for a stable government, do you understand?" Boyan Sapunov, a 79-year-old pensioner who was exasperated by the succession of caretaker governments, told AFP, while Krassimir Naydenov, a 57-year-old employee, said "no longer trusting anyone".
For expert Andrey Raytchev, of the Gallup International Institute, "the war in Ukraine, galloping inflation, pressure from Western partners" should in theory push the first forces of the country, both pro-Western, to hear.
But Lukas Macek, associate researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute for Central and Eastern Europe, says he is "skeptical about a possible outcome unless Boïko Borissov withdraws", deeming "worrying this spiral of elections ".
"We find the same pattern as in other central European countries: a former leader who clings, while the other parties refuse to ally with him, without however having much in common elsewhere".
The person concerned warned against new elections. "It would be suicidal, most people are calling for an end to instability," warned Borissov, 63, who came to vote in jeans.
The man whose image as a man of the people has been tarnished by suspicions of corruption had failed to form a government for lack of allies last fall, after coming out on top in the elections.
His rival and sworn enemy, Kiril Petkov, 42, wished him that Bulgaria would finally gain "the life of a normal European country" and that its citizens would stop emigrating.
If this vote is not conclusive, the Bulgarians will have to deal with a new interim cabinet appointed by President Roumen Radev, himself fiercely opposed to sending arms to Ukraine.
Even if in fact the factories have been running at full speed since the Russian invasion and indirectly export ammunition via third countries.
02/04/2023 23:09:38 - Sofia (AFP) - © 2023 AFP
