This is the first victory. Jean-Luc Melenchon's troops have already won the bet. In the first round, the Nupes left-wing cartel won the popular ecological and social union. According to the latest estimates, the Nupes has 25.6%. This is just a few votes more than the 25.2% presidential majority. This is an insignificant event. Jean-Luc Melenchon said, "The presidential party has been defeated", just minutes after the announcements of the first results.
"It's first and foremost a Macronie rout. Ian Brossat, a spokesperson for the PCF, said that he had never seen a president elected score so low in the first round. Concrete translation: Nupes will be present in over 500 constituencies during the second round. Five years ago, things were not so rosy for the left-leaning forces. The left had been defeated in the first round by more than 300 constituencies.
The Nupes' main figures are in the lead in their respective constituencies. Danielle Simonnet, the LFI side, came within a whisker of victory with 47.9%. This is a far better result than the socialist dissident LamiaEl Aaraje (17.5%), in the 20th district of Paris. Boris Vallaud and Olivier Faure, both socialists, won more than 40% and should be reelected next Sunday. In Essonne socialist Jerome Guedj (40%), is ahead Minister Amelie De Montchalin (30.4%).
Prior to the first round, those who were close to the tribune realized that the election 150 deputies from united left would be a success. This objective is now possible, judging by the results. It is not easy to win the absolute majority of 289 seats, or even close to a relative majority.
Everyone at NupesHQ believes victory is possible. It's not a problem to play the fatalists and be satisfied with a first round win. "Seat throws are absurd. The pollsters were wrong about 50 seats last time. That's what separates us from the majority. It's entertaining on paper. The step is still very steep. The first problem: In the second round, Macronist candidates will have the ability to count on votes from the right, which is being frightened of Melenchon's left. The Nupes candidates won't have the same vote reserve if abstention is at the same level (53%).
The abstainers are another pool of votes that is huge but very difficult to mobilize. Jean-Luc Melenchon addressed them, as he has done for ages. He made a brief speech, trying to remain solemn and sober. If you don't decide in ten days, prices will be frozen, minimum wage will rise to 1,500 euro, and you will retire at 60. That is all I have to say. He said it in front of cameras, "It's my way to make concrete and non-political our satisfaction of our results." Did he even hear the people who voted on Sunday?
The Nupes already see a target in this mass of abstainers: the young. Leila Chaibi (LFI MEP) stated that there were not many young people at the polling stations based on the feedback. Aurelie Trouvou says that the Insoumis need to raise their green profile in this round-two. It is obvious that they have a strategy. Manon Aubry gave it to us prior to the first round: "Do beta-anti-macronism simple and fundamental."
