An episode from 1997 shows how times and forces have changed in Chinese-American relations. At that time, Newt Gingrich, then Speaker of the US House of Representatives, visited Taiwan.
Beijing was seething with anger as the trip undermined China's one-China policy, but those in power had nothing to do but snarl politeness but get down to business with these words: "Since we have no intention of attacking, you need not defend yourselves." Militarily, Beijing had no means of opposing the American superpower.
Today, 25 years later, the situation is different. The People's Republic has numerous means to make Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan a fiasco.
Although the Democrat and Speaker of the US House of Representatives has not publicly stated whether she will travel, and if so when, the threats from Beijing are so disturbing and tangible that senior US military officials have warned Pelosi not to fly to Taipei. US President Joe Biden also thinks her tour is “not a good idea”.
Should the number three in the state nevertheless set out at a time that security experts consider to be one of the most dangerous periods in Sino-US relations?
Pelosi's move can easily be described as a grimace in the mirror of public opinion. Ahead of the US general election in November, harsh gestures are well received by the American Chinese. On the one hand. On the other hand, the politician's determination to stand by the beleaguered Taiwan is to be welcomed. Only: does she help the island with her journey?
In addition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the United States capable of countering a Chinese attack on Taiwan in extreme cases? If the consequences of pure intention are evil, then responsibility is above morality and intention. Postponing the trip would be a sensible step, but canceling it would not.
No one is under any illusions - China will not be moderated by stepping quietly. British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan summed it up decades ago. He recalled that "lions have always been appeased by accusing them of Christians - although Christians would have called it something else". Taiwan must be supported.
