Politics The 'record' of Tezanos: the deviation of his polls hits a ceiling before the motion of censure

There is no scandal, controversy or crisis capable of subduing the electoral expectations of Pedro Sánchez

Politics The 'record' of Tezanos: the deviation of his polls hits a ceiling before the motion of censure

There is no scandal, controversy or crisis capable of subduing the electoral expectations of Pedro Sánchez. The wind of public opinion always blows in his favor, giving him a comfortable advantage over his immediate rival. This is what emerges from the review of the polls that, from the CIS, elaborates the socialist sociologist José Félix Tezanos. It doesn't fail. His monthly barometers always swim against the current and where the rest of the polling firms see a continued decline of the PSOE, the Tezanos polls predict a triumphant future for Sánchez's party.

The one published yesterday was prepared between March 1 and 11, that is, fully coinciding with the controversy generated by the Tito Berni case, the former socialist deputy mired in the Mediator plot used by Congress and his fellow bench members as propitious instruments for their corruption, and also overlapping with the crisis between the two government partners -PSOE and Unidas Podemos- due to the need to correct the law of only yes is yes.

An unfortunate stage for the Socialists but on which the CIS of Tezanos throws a whole flash of optimism. Nothing less than five points -4.7- of advantage of the PSOE over the PP. The poll gives the Socialists 32.7% of voting intentions -six tenths more than in February- while it gives the popular 28%, that is, almost two points less than a month ago. Unidas Podemos collapses, undoubtedly punished by the scandal of the reductions in sentences for sexual offenders, to 10%. The distance that, according to the CIS, exists today between Sánchez and Feijóo, is neither more nor less than double that of a month ago.

Of course, the law of advantage always works in favor of the first. The CIS polls always grant it even if it is contradicting the results that all other sociological companies throw out.

This same month, and with a difference of only days, all the other published polls show radical results, not just different, but contrary to those of the CIS poll of Tezanos. For example, Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO places the PP 6.5 points above the PSOE; Celeste Tel talks about seven points; Invymark, 3.5 points; Sociometric, six; Gesop, three points; 40dB, 2.2 and Electromanía almost eight points.

This tendency of all to coincide in that the electoral forecasts of the popular ones exceed those of the socialists and only the CIS forecasting the opposite, has been repeated for months. The only exception was registered in July when the Tezanos barometer gave the PP a minimal advantage of 1.9 points. The rest of the pollsters expanded it to an average of six points.

The positive predictions of the Center for the party of Sánchez -and of Tezanos- have not been altered whatever happened. In February, the distance granted in favor of the PSOE was 2.3 points and in January, 1.7, despite the fact that in the period in which the survey was carried out, the Spanish witnessed the fiasco of the Socialists for trying to sneak in the renewal of the Constitutional Court, to the claim of plugging the husband of Nadia Calviño into National Heritage or to the reduction of sentences for embezzlement to benefit those convicted and prosecuted by 1-O.

At the beginning of December, based on field work carried out at the end of November, only the CIS gave the PSOE an advantage over the PP. Specifically, two points. Nor did it seem to affect the repeal of the crime of sedition as the independence movement or the announcement of the withdrawal of the Civil Guard from the roads of Navarra to please the nationalists.

And so month after month. Only the CIS since last June maintains that the Socialists are in the lead in the electoral race. The publication of its polls, always opting for the same option, is also carefully calculated to coincide with key moments. Yesterday's barometer comes just four days after Vox's motion of no confidence against Sánchez is debated in Congress. To encourage some and discourage others.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project