Where will the pension reform project be in a week? Difficult to predict, as the week which will begin on Monday February 6 is strewn with challenges for the text defended by the government. The unions are planning two new days of action to try to influence the debates which begin in plenary at the Assembly. And this while the Minister of Labor, Olivier Dussopt, is weakened by suspicions of favoritism and an upcoming trial.
Without questioning the cardinal measure of the reform, the raising of the retirement age from 62 to 64, the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, took a step on Sunday in the JDD towards the LR group, whose the votes are essential to vote for the reform. "We are going to move by extending the long career system to those who started working between the ages of 20 and 21", which will allow them to "leave at 63", she announced.
Dominique Carlac'h, vice-president of Medef, cannot "say if this is good or bad news". But "the good news is that we are making progress on the idea of reforming," she told France Info on Sunday. The president of LR Éric Ciotti repeated to the Parisian on Saturday to wish to "vote a pension reform", welcoming the "advances" obtained and pointing to the subject of long careers.
Ms. Borne also assured of her "confidence" in the Minister of Labour, Olivier Dussopt, on the front line on this bill, at a time when he is weakened by suspicions of "favoritism" in the awarding of a public contract. when he was mayor of Annonay.
On the side of the unions, the determination does not weaken. After two days of strikes and demonstrations, on January 19 and 31, the last of which exceeded the 2010 participation record, the inter-union announced two new days of action, Tuesday and Saturday, February 7 and 11. "We must amplify" the mobilization, urged on France 2 Thursday the secretary general of the CFDT, Laurent Berger.
The unions, however, remain cautious about their chances of matching the mobilization of January 31 (1.27 million demonstrators according to the police, more than 2.5 million according to the organizers): the school holidays began on Saturday for zone A and the opponents of the reform could choose either of the two dates. "We combined a weekday and a Saturday, we'll see on all two days, despite this school holiday period," CGT secretary general Philippe Martinez said on Friday.
From a security source, the authorities expect a mobilization of between 900,000 and 1.1 million people on Tuesday, including 70,000 at most in Paris, where the procession will parade from Place de l'Opéra to Place de la Bastille. An inter-union will be held at the Labor Exchange in Paris in the evening.
The strikes are once again expected to particularly affect the energy, refinery and rail transport sectors, which have planned to stop work on February 7 and 8. But the time has not yet come to block the economy, a strategy decried by the reformist unions, who intend to keep public opinion on their side by organizing massive and "friendly, respectful" demonstrations, to better influence the parliamentary debate.
Laurent Berger thus expects Parliament “to say: “It is not reasonable, in this social conflict […] to postpone the retirement age from 62 to 64.” He also cautions against using the constitutional weapon of 49.3 to push through reform without a vote. The number one of the first French union points out that many LR deputies were elected in rural areas where the mobilization against the reform is particularly strong.
For her part, Elisabeth Borne "does not consider" the possibility of drawing as in the fall of 49.3. Government and majority would emerge "politically weakened", admits MP Stéphanie Rist (Renaissance), rapporteur of the bill.
The battle which begins Monday afternoon in the hemicycle of the Palais-Bourbon promises in any case to be an obstacle course for the government. The LFI deputies will immediately defend a request for the rejection of the entire reform which worries the presidential camp. Then the RN group will carry its request for a referendum on the reform, which has little chance of being voted by the Assembly.
The deputies will then tackle the some 20,000 amendments tabled on the bill, including 13,000 by LFI. If the Assembly does not come to the end of the amendments by midnight February 17, the text may still pass to the Senate, due to the choice of the executive to resort to an amending budget from the Secu.
