Why doesn't the Chancellor dare to speak the simple truth? Namely, that a very long period of plenty has come to an end for the time being and now, at least for a while, an age of scarcity is imminent. It is not an unreasonable revelation, but a factual statement that the supply will not be sufficient at the moment and for the foreseeable future for the next few years to meet all demand.
The fact that what will become scarcer must therefore become more expensive is nothing other than simple economic logic. And you can and should trust a responsible population to do that without using modern but rather oblique Anglicisms to pretend that crises, catastrophes and wars can be overcome without any noticeable slowdown in prosperity.
Anyone who sugarcoats things that are going badly is neither credible nor convincing. Rather, he stirs up exactly those fears that he actually wanted to eliminate. Because common sense then asks itself all the more why a federal chancellor acts as if he has everything under control.
Although everyone has long known from everyday experience when shopping, refueling or traveling that nothing is going as normal and cheap as it used to be, because scarcity is already a reality.
What other bad news is the government expecting that it doesn't trust the population to cope with what is to come with courage and composure, common sense and pragmatism - without loss of control or social revolt?
Wouldn't honesty be a smarter and more appropriate policy - that is, due to democracy, an enlightened society and economic success? Because that way, solutions could be identified that start at the roots and not at the symptoms of faults.
Of course, there can be heated arguments about who is to blame for the fact that supply does not meet demand. In fact, most of the reasons for this were self-inflicted.
They are politically wanted. The boom in demand was sustained by monetary and fiscal policy flooding. Low interest rates made it possible to live on credit and buy on credit. State aid to compensate for the consequences of fighting the pandemic did the rest to provide the population with plenty of purchasing power.
At the same time, there were problems with the offer. However, they were not just the result of disrupted global supply chains or a blocked Suez Canal. Airports without enough security personnel and railways without train drivers or train attendants are just as little indebted to third parties.
It is more important that the cheap strategy of globalization was exhausted. Many global transactions are no longer worthwhile if all the effort is taken into account - including ecological and social upheavals.
This also applies to traffic and mass tourism. Above all, however, supply-side scarcity is the consequence of a political decision against nuclear power and against fossil fuels. However, under the current circumstances, nuclear phase-out or climate neutrality are neither cost-effective nor easy to achieve.
When demand exceeds supply, the solution is, in theory at least, quite simple: either increase supply or reduce demand, and even better, do both at the same time. That is why it is part of political honesty to first free oneself from no-growth fantasies and prohibition ideologies and instead to actively commit to increasing supply, innovation and new technologies.
“dare more progress”. That was the claim and promise of the traffic light coalition just over half a year ago. Neither can nor should the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions have changed anything. On the contrary: they in particular demand “more progress”.
It goes without saying that a commitment to progress cannot be about an understanding of past growth. More and more, cheaper consumption without regard to the environment, climate, mass poverty, exploitation, dependencies and interests of future generations leads to ruin.
However, a quality-oriented economic model that relies on resource-saving progress helps in the long term. This also includes charging those who cause damage and those who benefit from all the costs of their actions and actions.
Secondly, it must be made clear to the population that neither monetary nor fiscal policy can meet all consumer and credit requirements. The central banks and now even the ECB have at least initiated the turnaround in interest rates, albeit too late. Further increases in key interest rates must and will follow.
The path taken to fight the pandemic into the state economy has led to a dead end. The state should invest in infrastructure and education and ensure efficient security, distribution and health policies. He can confidently save on everything else.
If allowed, the economy will dare "more progress" in no time at all and quickly ensure that new business models shoot out of the ground like mushrooms. She no longer needs state money for this. It needs “more freedom” – but this doesn't cost the state anything. On the contrary: it brings more growth and thus more tax revenue.
Third, one has to admit that it will take time for growth stimuli to take effect and for supply to catch up with demand. Until then, the supply should not be further reduced by political measures.
Therefore, wherever this is still possible, interventions must be avoided, which are unavoidable in the long term, but will continue to increase the gap in supply in the short term. This is evidently the case in the energy sector – a key area both economically and socially.
The truth also includes a simple insight: If you want to save others, you must first survive yourself. Only a strong, intact economy and stable society will be able and willing to meet the immense challenges associated with scarcity, environmental problems and climate change.
"Everything on shares" is the daily stock exchange shot from the WELT business editorial team. Every morning from 7 a.m. with the financial journalists from WELT. For stock market experts and beginners. Subscribe to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Amazon Music and Deezer. Or directly via RSS feed.
