Nearly 8 million Tunisians are invited to vote on Sunday (January 29th) to elect a new parliament with limited powers under President Kaïs Saïed, against a backdrop of disaffection with politics and growing economic difficulties. A total of 262 candidates (for 131 of the 161 seats) are standing in the second round of the legislative elections, one of the last stages in the establishment of an ultra-presidentialized system, Mr. Saïed's objective since his coup de force in the summer 2021.
On July 25, 2021, deeming the country ungovernable, the President dismissed his Prime Minister and froze the Parliamentary Assembly, dissolved in the spring of 2022 before a reform of the Constitution in the summer of 2022, which greatly restricted the prerogatives of Parliament.
The latter, made up of the Assembly of Deputies, elected on Sunday, and a National Council of Regions (still to be established), "does not grant confidence to the government and cannot censure it, except by the majority of two-thirds of the two chambers,” lawyer and political scientist Hamadi Redissi reminds Agence France-Presse. Furthermore, the president cannot be impeached, even for serious misconduct.
"Given the lack of interest of the population" for politics, "this Parliament will have little legitimacy, the all-powerful president thanks to the Constitution of 2022 will be able to dominate it as he pleases", estimates Youssef Cherif, expert of Columbia Global Centers. In the first round, on December 17, 2022, only 11.22% of voters had moved. It is the strongest abstention since the 2011 revolution, which brought down dictator Ben Ali and ushered in democracy.
As in the first round, the opposition, marginalized by a voting system prohibiting candidates from displaying a political affiliation, called for a boycott of the vote, in the name of its rejection of Mr. Saïed's "coup d'etat".
Shortages and decline in purchasing power
The campaign appears bland, with few election signs and mostly unknown candidates. To mobilize public opinion, especially the youth who had voted overwhelmingly in 2019 for Mr. Saïed, then a novice in politics, the electoral authority organized televised debates during prime time. But, in the street, the attention is elsewhere. The population has seen its purchasing power plummet with inflation above 10%, and is experiencing sporadic shortages of products, such as milk, oil or semolina. "The country is on the verge of collapse," said Mr. Redissi.
Despite "general discontent" fueled by strikes in transport or education, the demonstrations do not mobilize crowds and "the status quo may continue as long as the average Tunisian does not see a credible alternative to President Saïed “, dreads, for his part, Youssef Cherif.
The opposition, which called on the president to resign after the snub of the first round, remains divided into three irreconcilable blocs: the National Salvation Front, united around the Islamist-inspired party Ennahdha, Mr. Saïed's pet peeve; the Free Destourian Party (PDL) of Abir Moussi, which claims the legacy of former President Ben Ali; and left-wing parties.
Another deadlock: the country's crucial negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a loan of almost 2 billion dollars (1.8 billion euros) have stalled for months. Various factors seem to be slowing the conclusion of an agreement: first, there is, according to Mr. Cherif, "the role of the United States", heavyweight of the IMF, worried about an autocratic drift in Tunisia, "fallen star when she was "a model of democracy". And President Saïed "seems to be reluctant to accept the dictates of the IMF" for painful reforms, such as the lifting of subsidies on basic products, deciphers Mr. Cherif.
There is "a glaring discrepancy between the untimely sovereignist declarations of the president against international organizations, and the program proposed to the IMF by the government", abounds Mr. Redissi. Glimmer of hope for this expert: an "initiative to save the country" launched by the powerful trade union union General Tunisian Labor Union (UGTT) with the League of Human Rights, the Bar Association and the NGO Forum Tunisian for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES).
At the first meeting of this new national dialogue "quartet" on Friday, UGTT leader Noureddine Taboubi promised "a coherent, rational and independent plan" to try to resolve "economic, social and political ".
