Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's gaze fixes the ruins of Antakya from the poster overlooking them and comforts Ahmet Gulyildizoglu before Sunday's second round of the presidential election.
In the southern provinces of Turkey devastated by the February 6 earthquake, which killed at least 50,000 people, millions of voters preferred to bet on the man in power for twenty years, who narrowly missed being re-elected on May 14.
Faced with Erdogan, his social-democratic and secular rival Kemal Kiliçdaroglu “does not inflate you with hope”, confides Ahmet Gulyildizoglu in front of a vacant lot where a six-storey building once stood.
"Besides, you have an alliance that keeps its promises," he insists about President Erdogan's Islamo-conservative AKP party, allied with several far-right parties.
The fact that the head of state remained in the disaster areas, despite the delay in relief and the collapse of tens of thousands of buildings on their occupants, contributed to Kiliçdaroglu's poor performance in the first round, which collected 44, 9% of the vote against 49.5% for Mr. Erdogan.
Unlike the first round, the "reis" is now the big favorite of the second.
The anger expressed after the earthquake forced the head of state to issue an unusual public apology. But for Berk Esen, professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul, this result is "not very surprising".
The researcher recalls that most of the affected provinces traditionally vote in favor of the president and believes that its inhabitants accepted Erdogan's invocation of "destiny" after the disaster, without stopping at the lack of respect for anti-seismic standards.
Moreover, he notes, "the opposition did not conduct an intensive campaign in the region and could not offer a credible alternative message".
Faced with the possibility of defeat, Kiliçdaroglu, 74, changed course. Abandoning his promises of appeasement, he adopted a vehement tone, pledging to expel millions of Syrian refugees "on victory".
The message resounds in the cities bordering Syria like Antakya, the ancient Antioch.
Kiliçdaroglu had posters posted there claiming that "the Syrians will leave". "We will not turn Turkey into a migrant depot," he said in Antakya on Tuesday.
A radical speech that appeals to Mehmet Aynaci, 20: "Before the earthquake, if you were looking for an apartment you always came across a lot of Syrians," he says.
"Of course they have to leave," adds Atilla Celtik, who hasn't left his deserted city either.
"Soon they will claim our land", he predicts, "we are worried".
Hatay Province, some districts of which are very liberal, gave Kiliçdaroglu a slight advantage in the first round.
A possible success of the opposition candidate will depend in part on the number of survivors who, settled far from the disaster area, will make the trip again to come and vote a second time on Sunday.
Nearly 1.7 million displaced persons have retained their registration on the electoral rolls of the affected provinces.
For Sema Sicek, whose anger against Erdogan remained as strong as when thousands of people were slowly dying under the rubble, without help, it is imperative that they return.
"Walk if you have to but don't abandon your land," said the 65-year-old man, accusing Erdogan of "burying us alive".
Some of that anger spilled over to social media, where people in quake-affected areas were blamed for backing Erdogan.
"It really touched us," admits Ahmet Gulyildizoglu's daughter, Hatice.
Erdogan convinced voters in the affected regions by promising them new homes by early next year - "maybe a bit later" for those in Antakya.
Kiliçdaroglu tried to do the same on Tuesday, saying "no one should doubt" his ability to rebuild the region.
Hakan Tiryaki, the provincial leader of his party, the CHP, refutes accusations that the opposition was not sufficiently heard in the region before the first round.
Campaigning vigorously could have given the impression that the opposition was trying to take advantage of people's grief, he said.
And that wouldn't have been enough to change Omer Edip Aslantas' mind: a former left-wing sympathizer, the 50-year-old believes that "the Turkish left is no longer the same". "She has become anti-Turkish, anti-Muslim."
25/05/2023 19:11:20 Antakya (Turquie) (AFP) © 2023 AFP
