The legislative elections have become more than a formality. It should have been simple in 2017, when President Macron had an overwhelming majority of 313 LREM deputies, 47 MoDem and a vast majority of the presidency. The bad news is tied to Macronie, and doubt is growing in people's minds. The situation has been changed by the powerful dynamic of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union, (Nupes), which is led by Jean-Luc Melenchon and targets Matignon. Patrick Mignola, the boss of MoDem deputies in "Le Monde", admitted to "fearing an election accident".
This weekend, the results of the first round in legislative elections in constituencies for French expatriates made it clear that the concern was real. Jean-Luc Melenchon welcomed Jean-Luc Melenchon to Twitter, "Despite all the bugs and all of the pitfalls and lackof control of the results. The Nupes candidates were present in 10 cases of 11 in the 2nd round (5 compared with 2017)." The united left representatives even came out on top twice: in the 5th Constituency (Spain Monaco, Portugal, Andorra), where Manuel Valls was eliminated, as well as in the 9th Constituency (Maghreb, West Africa), where Karim Ben Cheikh appeared in front of Elisabeth Moreno.
Stanislas Guerini (leader of LREM and Minister for Transformation) announced on Franceinfo that the majority would now vote for Stephane Vojetta, a dissident LREM deputy, to make up for the earlier elimination of the former Prime Minster. Elisabeth Moreno's 28% vote is not enough to secure her victory in the second round. "She has almost 1,000 votes out of 10,000, so that seems to me to have been compromised," says a macronist for the "Parisian". Roland Lescure, who is a pillar in the macronie, was first in the 1st constituency in the United States and Canada. However, she received 22 more points than 2017 and was followed by Florence Roger, the candidate for the Nupes.
The leaders of the presidential majority attempted to quell the panic when they were confronted by the Nupes' breakthrough. It isn't about reaching candidates who are opposed to the left in Sunday's hot spots (259 out of 577 constituencies). Panic is contagious. On Monday, Christophe Castaner, leader of LREM deputies, said that "We are in lead in eight constituencies. It is a strong message from our fellow citizens who wish to give a majority for Emmanuel Macron". Nupes recognizes an advisor to the executive in "Le Parisien", but it is a minor dynamic. In reality, the candidates are only adding up the scores from all left formations. It's an optical effect that is linked to their original union. "The scores of the left in round one are not necessarily indicative of victory in round two. "La Nupes does not have any reserve votes.
But the constituencies of French citizens abroad are very specific. Turnout is low, internet voting is allowed, and the electorate is composed of expatriates. One socialist leader in "Liberation", Emmanuel Macron, said that he doesn't know how many foreign constituencies he will win. It is a large electorate that supports Emmanuel Macron. There should not have been a match. These results are not trivial. They show that there is a dynamic and that winning in the legislative elections is possible, although it will be difficult.
The risk of transposing Saturday's results to Sunday's results on June 12 is high. However, polls of voter intentions show that the dynamic favors Nupes. An Ifop poll on LCI from June 1 shows that the presidential majority is slightly ahead (27%), ahead 25%) of the left-wing coalition (25%), and ahead 21% of the National Rally (21%). Over the past weeks, the score has become more tight and Nupes can even take the lead in some surveys. The union of the Left is tied with the presidential majority (24.5%), and the RN (22%), in the Elabe poll for BFMTV/L'Express on June 1.
According to "Le Monde", the defeat that was deemed impossible several weeks ago at the Elysee Palace is now "not possible". Aurore Berge is the deputy president of LREM at the National Assembly and says that she takes seriously the competition presented by Jean-Luc Melenchon. She said that it was the only one in existence today, and she ruled in the evening daily. Macronie, in all the chaos, tries to be reassured by claiming that it is "a central force" and will win the votes of left-wing voters if there is a duel with the far right or vice versa. These candidates hope to attract the moderate electorate, particularly those who will vote LR during the first round. The right-wing party announced it would not issue voting instructions on the first round's evening. Emmanuel Macron would be exposed to severe turbulence if he wins the narrow victory.