Concern is growing in Ukraine that more Ukrainians will remain abroad after the end of the war the longer it lasts and the better they adapt to life in their host countries, as the latest major study from a think tank Ukrainian estimates that between 1.3 and 3.3 million may never return.

"I really want to go home, but every time I hear an air raid alarm I feel like it's too soon," Anna Zasiadko, a young dentist from Kharkiv, told Efe when she was about to return to Copenhagen after a brief stay in her home. city ​​of origin, in eastern Ukraine.

Zasiadko was one of millions of Ukrainians, mostly women and children, who had to flee their attacked cities in the first days of the invasion. Her apartment in the Saltivka North district of Kharkiv was severely damaged and the building is currently without electricity, water and gas supplies.

A year and a half later, she is still divided between nostalgia, the absence of her husband, who serves in the army, and the life she has built in Denmark, where she found refuge.

Although she is a qualified professional in the field of medicine, she cannot practice as an independent dentist in Denmark, as her training is not fully recognized there. However, unlike many displaced Ukrainians, she has a job as an assistant to a local dentist.

Between 5.6 and 6.7 million Ukrainians are in a similar situation, according to a study by the Kiev Center for Economic Strategy, although the variety of circumstances can have a direct influence on their decision to return or not once the war.

Those who saw their income decline compared to what they had in Ukraine are more likely to return, as are residents of regions that suffered less from the invasion. Students and those who saw their income increase are less willing to do so.

According to the survey commissioned by the think tank, 63% of displaced Ukrainians currently plan to eventually return to their country of origin. However, their final decision will depend on factors such as security in the country after the end of the conflict, as well as the availability of housing and income in Ukraine.

The difference between general living conditions in your home country and your current country of residence will also play a role, the report suggests.

The greater the population loss, the more serious the effects will be for the future of the country, he warns. Analysts estimate that it would lead to an annual drop in Ukrainian GDP of between 2.7% and 6.9%.

Given that nearly half of the displaced Ukrainians (more than 3 million) are under 20 years old, it would also exacerbate the long-term demographic crisis in the country, whose population has been steadily declining since the early 1990s and where the number of Births fell by a third since the beginning of the invasion.

Once borders are fully open and men are allowed to leave the country, some will likely join their families abroad, further exacerbating the problem.

To encourage as many Ukrainians as possible to return, Ukraine needs to proactively undertake a number of initiatives, analysts stress.

Key among them is the rapid reconstruction of the war-affected region, as well as the provision of sufficient assistance, including temporary accommodation, to its residents. Keeping the EU labor market open to Ukrainians would also encourage them to return to Ukraine, as they would know that in this case job opportunities abroad would not be closed to them.

However, an even larger outflow of Ukrainians is currently possible if efforts to protect the country's damaged energy system against planned Russian drone and missile attacks prove futile this winter.

According to the report, up to half a million left the country during the previous coldest season, when large cities such as kyiv, Odessa and Kharkiv were left without electricity for hours or days on end.