This year's total damage caused by global environmental disasters is significantly lower than last year's. But extreme regional weather makes climate change "tangible in the everyday lives of many people," explains reinsurer Munich Re, and gives a vague outlook for the future.
According to Munich Re, the damage and disasters associated with climate change will be felt by growing parts of the world's population. According to the reinsurer's analysis, global losses in the first half of the year were significantly lower than a year earlier in a long-term comparison. However, there were noticeable weather extremes on several continents, as the company announced in Munich. In the first half of the year, natural disasters around the world caused total economic damage of 65 billion dollars (64 billion euros), 40 billion less than in the very loss-heavy first half of 2021.
"Overall, in a long-term comparison, it is not an outstanding claims year," said the company's head of geo-research, Ernst Rauch. "But there were regional extremes that led to new peak values on the claims side. This is particularly the case in Australia." There, total damage from severe flooding added up to $6.6 billion -- a higher amount is expected since there were renewed floods in July. "The damage will be even greater at the end of the year," said Rauch.
"We have meteorological abnormalities, keyword heat wave in Europe," said the scientist. "In the end, these are very strong indications that climate change is not just a scientific issue, but can be felt in many people's everyday lives." With regard to the current heat and drought, Rauch referred to the trend of rising temperatures with falling summer rainfall in Central Europe. Annual mean temperatures in large parts of Europe have risen by more than 1.5 degrees since systematic records began at the end of the 19th century.
According to the Munich Re database, heat, drought and forest fires are also more common in many other regions of the world. Munich Re has been documenting and analyzing the damage caused by natural catastrophes worldwide for decades, as this is of great importance for risk calculations. "Basically, the damage from natural disasters is increasing around the world, but it's not like there's a clear direction for every hazard in every region of the world."
As an example, Rauch cited tropical cyclones - hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones. "Their frequency has increased in the North Atlantic, but numbers have been declining in the South Pacific." The current hurricane season could be more severe than usual on the US East Coast and in the Caribbean. "Like all research institutes, we expect an above-average active year in the North Atlantic in terms of the frequency of storms," said Rauch.
"On a long-term average, there are eleven named storms in the North Atlantic, compared to an average of 14 in recent years." The expectation for this year: 18 plus/minus three. According to Munich Re, the reason is the natural climate fluctuation ENSO ("El Niño southern oscillation"). So-called La Niña conditions were currently prevailing, which favor the formation of hurricanes. In any case, the United States is hit by natural disasters with above-average frequency. In the first half of the year, the economic damage there amounted to 28 billion dollars, more than 40 percent of the global total. Most of these were caused by severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
A few months ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) appealed to insurers to review their claims calculations for natural catastrophes. "Early understanding of climate change is essential for us," said Rauch. "We continuously adapt our risk models and our entire risk management to scientific findings."
