Before the official forecast: Corona-crisis, German economy, which is worse than I thought

The economic crash at Corona-the year 2020 will be fiercely – that people are hosts to agree. Also, the "economic wise men" who advise the German government, have to adjust their forecast downwards. This Tuesday, the Advisory Council published the assessment of the overall economic development of its revised estimates for the years 2020 and 2021.

The crucial questions: when is recovering in Europe's largest economy from the deepest recession of the post-war history? And what are the billion-dollar government aid packages for companies and consumers?

The Council of experts had adopted by the end of March as the most likely scenario is that there is a five-week "Lockdown", and then the limitations for companies as well as consumers, be relaxed. For this case, the panel was assumed that the German gross domestic product (GDP) would shrink in the current year by 2.8 percent. For the worst case under the "economic exhibit" a Minus of 5.4%.

Worse-than-expected

But it came out worse than expected: industrial production slumped to its lowest level for over 20 years, for the export economy of April brought the numbers Horror. The domestic tourism came to nearly a complete Halt, the hospitality industry is struggling, according to the industry Association Dehoga to Survive. Many Economists expected for the full year with a significant increase in bankruptcies.

access to all the exclusive F+articles. You will remain fully informed, for only € 2.95 per week.

The Chairman of the Council of experts, Lars field had already announced the end of may, a Revision of the forecast test. "The Lockdown has lasted longer, and the foreign economy is hit harder than expected. Especially in terms of the United States, we were clearly too optimistic,“ said the Freiburg Economics Professor, recently. "We expect this year's decline in gross domestic product, which is expected to be between minus 6% and minus 7 percent."

it is for Sure: Germany is heading for the worst recession since the Second world war. The Federal government expects for the current year, a 6.3 percent decline in economic output, the Bundesbank expects it to minus 7.1 percent, the German chambers of industry and Commerce (DIHK) was in the middle of may of "at least ten percent" Minus. In the global economic and financial crisis of 2009, German GDP fell by 5.7 percent.

In the first quarter of 2020, the economic performance shrank, according to data from the Federal Statistical office for the previous quarter by 2.2 percent, although in the Three-month period of the measures to combat the Virus basically only of the March was affected. And the expectations for the second quarter are grim, even if, in the meantime, a number of constraints were again relaxed. The Bundesbank stated: "Overall, the economic output in the average of the current quarter could fall by nearly a tenth, and thus considerably more strongly than in the first quarter."