Carmignac forecast 2021: What regions are likely to recover first

With a rather bumpy recovery in 2021, attributed to the French Fund company Carmignac. For the first quarter, for instance, will feel more like the fifth quarte

Carmignac forecast 2021: What regions are likely to recover first

With a rather bumpy recovery in 2021, attributed to the French Fund company Carmignac. For the first quarter, for instance, will feel more like the fifth quarter of 2020, says chief economist Raphael Gallardo. The economy and opportunities to grow or even shrink. In the second and third quarter will continue in the Manufacturing process of the warehouse building, which is currently still hampered by limitations in the transport system. In the fourth quarter, finally, you will see the catch-up effects in consumer demand.

Martin Hock

editor in the economy.

F. A. Z.

Less Gallardo expected to private investment. The debt of the company increased, and there remained uncertainties, including with respect to possible tax increases in America. After an increase in the second and third quarter, it expects in the fourth with estate investments.

in Addition, the Erholunsgprozess will spatially and temporally uneven run. In the case of vaccinations, most emerging countries are lagging behind the developed countries, while China's recovery is already so far advanced that it will reach in the first quarter of its peak. Here is a sharp rise in real interest rates and the Yuan would make more of course felt. Also Gallardos hopes on monetary policy are limited. America will remain accommodative, China restrictive. This will increase the existing tension in the exchange of capital and technology.

Frederick Leroux, head of Cross-Asset team, sees benefits for emerging economies. The fiscal Stimulus in the United States will lead to an increase in especially long-term interest rates and the dollar to drop. Similar to how in the year 2003, it would be for emerging countries. The biggest risk, paradoxically, be a lot of good news, what might be causing an excessive increase in Interest rates. In the United States, the capacity constraints are not as high as they seemed, tell Gallardo. There are a number of bottlenecks.

On the bonds side Carmignac focuses on three sectors: leisure and everything what have I to do with the restart of the economy, commodities, and financial services. Particularly in the emerging markets in the eye. In the case of government bonds from developed countries, the Problem is mainly the low rate of return. David Juniper, head of the equities division, recommends caution with regard to the reviews to be taken. You have reduced the commitment to "Stay-at-Home"stocks last and cyclic values facing. He sees opportunities in the tourism and luxury goods, but also in medical technology, as well as traditional automakers, which can make the Transition to electric vehicles.

Updated Date: 03 February 2021, 20:20

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