The world trade falters, and not just in the Corona. Between 1950 and 2008 the volume of globally traded goods had grown more than three times as fast as global economic output. Those days are long gone: towards the end of the financial crisis, the exchange of goods made it such a leap to the top since then, but has flattened its growth, according to Figures from the Dutch CBP-Institute significantly. A large free trade agreements such as TTIP and TPP are on the ice. According to the world Bank, the average global tariff levels have stagnated for several years.
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editor in the economy.F. A. Z.
The Corona-pandemic is likely to change nothing, on the contrary, A seven-member team of authors of the consulting firm, BCG predicts that the global volume of trade of a pandemic caused at least 20 percent shrinks and only three years to the pre-crisis level of around $ 18 trillion, will have reached – the Interplay of world economic crisis, stiffer gait in geopolitics and re-adjusted and partly re-nationalised-focused supply chains at the same time, but now the tectonic trade shifts in gear.
"It is becoming more and more evident that, in proportion to the existing intensification of the geopolitical (...) forces the disruptive impact of the pandemic on the global trade traces you leave behind," write the Economists in a paper that has been submitted to the F. A., for example.
Closer to Europe
The biggest changes you expect for the trading of goods between America and China. Prior to Corona, its volume was decreased in areas such as energy, semiconductor, machinery, and food, this Trend is likely to accelerate further. Compared with 2019 BCG puts the Minus in the year 2023 to 128 billion dollars, or more than a fifth. And because only a part of the production re-nationalised, can be magnetized, arithmetic shifts, the Economists with strong Trade.
in Front of all of the ten countries scoring the Asean network in Southeast Asia will benefit, this includes countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia belong to. Compared with 2019 in the Plus in the trade with America amounted to 26 billion dollars, and with China of 41 billion dollars. Study author Nikolaus Lang refers to the fact that Vietnam, for example, already now gradually produces electronic items, which were previously made in China.
the Same is true for shifts from China to India, is recognizable, among other things, the recently announced relocation of production from the technology group Apple. For the EU, the Economists expect, by and Large, a zero-sum game: The trade with China is going to decrease to $ 30 billion with Africa at 14 billion dollars. For this, they expect the EU, with growth rates of around 20 billion dollars in trade with America and the Asean countries. Also, you assume that part of the textile production back closer to Europe, and from countries such as Bangladesh, Turkey or Morocco is being moved.Updated Date: 21 July 2020, 15:19