The recent Rally in the stock markets has a lot of energy. On the stock exchange, the air seems a bit to be out. It is clear that the Dax is in relation to the American indices Dow Jones and S&P500 is very weak.
Germany's best-known stock market index is a purely chartist, as measured by the moving average of the last 200 days of trading in an upward trend, but many experts sound a note of caution. Guilhem Savry by the Swiss asset Manager, Unigestion, for example, advises, "to take the foot slightly off the Gas, and chances of a possible correction to perceive".
The justification of his caution, he refers to the slowing Momentum, the unfavourable seasonality, the deteriorating health situation, the highly concentrated investor positioning, as well as the American interest rate curve, the point, the current pace of the stock rally in question. In addition, the expert said that the shares of the company which would, in the recovery at the most, had fallen, despite the positive Figures for the second quarter, according to the announcement of the results. Some investor has apparently made the cashier and wanted Corona to its Portfolio is not a second-wave expose.
Fast recovery in danger
"The July was a hot stock of the month – standing favorites in exchange for shares, falling interest rates and rising gold prices and a weakening US Dollar. The current fluctuations in the value press the traceable uncertainty of the market participants,“ says Thomas Böckelmann of the asset management Euro switch. This will not change in the eyes of the market experts so quickly: "With the rising Corona-infections in the United States and Europe, the feared second wave is likely." Then, a quick recovery would be from the table.
"A second Corona-Deep psycho would be logically much worse than the first, a Gau," said market expert Robert Halver of the Baader Bank. "Should expectations be on one end of the valley of the Corona-tears disappointed, could and values, abound in the recession, and an indoor -, as well as socio-politically heavy damage," he adds.
just on the well-known argument of the second Corona to focus wave would probably be too easy. Even if it should be in the fall really an available vaccine against COVID19, this is likely to lead to a certain relief rally, but the other (well-known) problems remained in the stock market: The upcoming election of the American President, the growing conflict between China and the United States, and perhaps hard Brexit.S&P 500 -- -- (--) S&P INDIZESCitigroupBNP Paribas 1T 1W 3M 1J 3J 5J For detail view
Quo vadis America?
in Addition, the American labour market is likely to remain until at least the end of the year unstable. The President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Robert Kaplan, has indicated recently that the unemployment rate could be at the end of the year, there is still a nine to ten percent, only slightly below the current eleven percent. This is also why the outcome of the American presidential election will have far-reaching effects on the international financial markets. "Which candidate wins: Fiscal Stimuli will be high on the Agenda and, therefore, higher spending in America's crumbling infrastructure. Republicans and Democrats alike are committed to the long-vaunted infrastructure package finally implement it,“ according to the assessment of John Weavers, a market expert at M&G Investments.DAX ® -- -- (--) Long & SchwarzXetraCitigroupBNP Paribas 1T 1W 3M 1J 3J 5J For detail view
the result could be infrastructure-equities be worth a look – after all, in America, the need for roads, gas pipelines or electricity grids to renovate or re-build, before the pandemic is a big issue.
long-Term investors issues, there are enough
Whether German investors will be able to access? According to a survey from J. P. Morgan Asset Management, 60 percent of respondents would switch banks if they threaten with a "Depositary's fee". But only around one in Ten would take advantage of this opportunity and at least part of his money in the capital market to work. Once more many Bank customers long-term chart of the Dax, S&P500 or Dow Jones to look at. On the point of view of ten, 15 or 20 years, shares are unchanged, a solid and profitable investment of funds – all (Corona)crises in Spite of.Updated Date: 07 August 2020, 09:19