The IWH study: Economists warn of new banking crisis

The Corona-crisis to the German banks. Financial associations and large institutions to report on Credit deferrals in a big way. In the case of the German Bank and of the belonging to the group in Postbank of approximately 70,000 have applied for private customers, interest and principal payments on your loan to be suspended, as the Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bank, recently reported in an Interview with the F. A., for example.

Mark Fehr

editor in the economy.

The news Agency AFP has then queried in the case of other major banks and Bank groups, as of postponements of Payment of your customers are affected. Accordingly, the savings banks were alone in the beginning of July to 189,000 deferred consumer loans. Also, the ING said that in the past few weeks, requests of private customers after the eradication increasingly to have breaks and eradication, reduction, or applications for deferment of payment of Rates received. The Targobank have received $ 47,000 in deferral requests from Private and business customers, Commerzbank recorded payments of 33,000 Students.

the banking crisis would be the economic crisis, exacerbate

The question of how manageable the payment deferrals for the banks. In the case of Deutsche Bank it was a single-digit percentage, as of pipe the F. A. Z. said. The sounds, after all, significant. The ING referred to the number of Deferrals in relation to the total of their consumer loan portfolio as relatively low. Also, Hypovereinsbank language of a very small number of affected retail customers. The banks must now hope that your debtor to resume the payments when their financial situation improves. Otherwise, a Bank crisis could threaten that in turn attracts businesses and consumers affected.

Anticipated credit losses are, of course, also an international Problem. The rating Agency S&P warned last week in front of a big wave roll in, banks and credit insurers tighten the screws. The risk of default is not merely with a view to consumer loans. The problematic Situation of many companies, customers could be for the banks is also dangerous. The Tenor of a study published by the economic research Institute IWH at the beginning of July is at least.

the IWH President Reint Gropp expected even in an optimistic economic scenario, the negative consequences for the financial system. "Even if it runs for the German economy very well, we hold a new banking crisis is likely," said Gropp, who authored the study along with the IWH-financial market researchers, Michael Koetter, and William McShane. The scientists had studied the vulnerability of the corporate credit portfolio of individual banks to economic fluctuations. You linked to the financial indicators of more than half a Million companies with the balance sheet data of 1000 banks.

access to all the exclusive F+articles. You will remain fully informed, for only € 2.95 per week.

Gropp recommends that the Committee oblige the banks even more risk core capital or more capital equip. A rescue of banks with tax money should be, however, without a systematic restructuring of their commercial loan portfolios excluded. The banking supervision has relaxed the strict requirements for the Institute most recently, the credit supply to the economy for the wealthy. At the same time, the Bank urged overseers of the Institute to waive dividends to its shareholders.