E-trucks are not yet playing a role on German autobahns, but according to a new study this is set to change in the medium term. Although the electric trucks are more expensive to buy than their diesel counterparts, they score points when it comes to other costs.
According to a study by management consultancy PwC, electric trucks are likely to dominate the market in a decade. As early as 2030, electric trucks will be around 30 percent cheaper than diesel trucks in terms of overall costs, according to the industry experts in a new study. Then every third new truck in Europe, North America and China will be electric. "By 2035, their share in new registrations in these markets will increase to over 70 percent." The management consultancy McKinsey also presented a study on the subject in September and also predicted that e-trucks would prevail. However, the authors of that study are a bit more cautious. They only assume that in 2035 more than 50 percent of newly registered trucks will be electric.
According to the PwC study, however, 36 billion euros will have to be invested in Europe alone for a nationwide network of charging stations and hydrogen filling stations by 2035. According to the study by PwC Strategy, up to 21,000 additional wind turbines are needed to have enough green electricity for the e-trucks
Drivers of the change are the legal requirements and the growing cost advantages for e-trucks. In Europe, they are expected to pay only half as much toll from May 2023. "Logistics companies can save up to 25,000 euros per truck and year." On the other hand, truck manufacturers have to pay increasingly higher penalties for exceeding the ever stricter CO2 limits.
Although trucks with batteries cost twice as much as a diesel and will remain significantly more expensive in the future, according to PwC they will pay for themselves in terms of total costs from 2025. E-trucks with fuel cells will become competitive from 2030. Rising CO2 taxes, price jumps for diesel, lower maintenance costs and falling battery costs would give tailwind. And in view of the Ukraine war, many governments are currently realigning their energy policies, thereby reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.
But the political requirements "also make progress in charging concepts necessary," warned Christian Foltz, co-author of the study. The rapid development of public charging infrastructure in Europe is an essential prerequisite. For a resilient network with 1800 megawatt charging stations and 2100 hydrogen filling stations, 36 billion euros would have to be estimated. At megawatt charging stations, battery-powered trucks can charge enough electricity for 400 kilometers in 30 minutes. According to PwC, a motorway charging park with 6 megawatt charging stations and 34 overnight charging points will cost 8.5 million euros.
According to PwC, the proportion of electric trucks that generate their electricity from hydrogen fuel cells is likely to increase to around 15 percent of new registrations in Europe and China in 2035. They use more energy, but can be refueled faster, have a longer range and are also not as heavy as battery trucks. If politicians develop a comprehensive hydrogen economy as planned, the fuel cell "now has the chance to become an integral part of a holistic hydrogen value chain," said Neuhausen.
The transformation will demand a lot from the truck industry, but at the same time offer huge growth opportunities, said the head of the electromobility department at PwC Strategy
