Lack of chips, corona lockdowns, the Ukraine war, delivery bottlenecks, inflation: the car industry has been hit hard this year. From that point of view, 2023 can only get better. Auto expert Helmut Becker also hopes so. But in the ntv.de interview he also finds warning words.
ntv.de: Mr. Becker, inflation, interest rate increases, supply chain problems, corona lockdowns and the war in Ukraine: the German automotive industry has had a difficult year. How will the next one turn out?
Helmut Becker: It can only get better! We are starting from a very low level: the demand, i.e. the need to catch up in all major markets, is there. There are great uncertainties, today's risks remain, the war in Ukraine is not over, semi-bloc formation in the world economy continues. The development of energy prices and supply are highly uncertain. Against this background, however, the range for incorrect forecasts is very high.
Was 2022 really such a bad year as the external disruptions suggest?
No, you can't say that in general. Our major automakers have done well despite multiple crises, even posting record quarterly profits, due to the concentration of shrinking sales on higher-end models. On the other hand, some suppliers have slipped into insolvency. After all, the industry has had to lay off more than 70,000 jobs in the last two years despite a latent labor shortage - and the end of the road has not yet been reached with a structurally increasing share of electric cars in sales.
What will be the defining automotive topics in 2023?
There are two of them: If the hoped-for production recovery in combustion engines does not occur, a major wave of bankruptcies among suppliers is inevitable. And secondly: The draft law presented by the Biden government to fight inflation and to transform the US economy green and electrify the American automobile market - the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) - is a disguised China protectionism program. But it will also hit German car manufacturers hard because of their dependence on China for indispensable chip and battery parts for electric cars and will massively worsen Germany's competitive position as a location. In short: Germany as an automotive location has a problem.
A pick-up in the auto market could help. Will we see one like this in 2023?
Definitely yes! Here, too, there are two reasons: There is a huge backlog. According to my estimates, more than 20 million cars have not been built during the crisis, but there was demand for them. And secondly: the delivery bottlenecks for raw materials, supplier parts and chips are gradually easing, and the global economy is picking up momentum again.
Which sales markets will set the pace?
The former BRIC countries, but without Russia this time. China, India and Brazil. Europe is recovering only slowly, as is the USA. For better illustration: In 2023, more cars will be newly registered in China than in Germany in a whole year! India is also waking up, car sales there are picking up speed, and in 2022 India will be the third largest single market in the world, ahead of Japan.
What is the situation especially with the German car manufacturers?
Basically speaking: In the German car industry, the wild youngsters are now on the move. That gives hope for the future. BMW seems best positioned under Oliver Zipse. The Munich-based company is open to technology and not ideological in the direction of electric cars.
And the eternal competitor with the star?
Mercedes boss Ola Källenius has reorganized the car division. The star is doing very well - as a returnee to the automotive upper house, albeit giving up traditional Daimler market segments in the lower ranks. This was probably due to pressure from the Chinese majority shareholders, who are increasingly exerting their influence in this area.
What about VW?
The VW Group is picking up speed again under the new chief driver Oliver Blume - in all respects. Everything that has been decided since Blume took office makes sense. Blume, and with it the VW Group, still need time before the changes that have been introduced really take hold.
How do you see the situation of the suppliers in 2023 after there were some insolvencies in 2022?
The situation remains tense. The suppliers are still lacking in production volume due to the economy. Unlike their customers, they cannot switch to higher-quality parts. The most recent collective bargaining agreement with a wage increase of around 8.5 percent over two years cannot be managed without volume growth. On the other hand, the upfront costs of most suppliers for the transformation from combustion engines to electric cars remain high. And with decreasing state purchase subsidies, the electric car has to learn to run by itself.
On a positive note, who could take center stage in 2023 and why?
Having grown up in the country, I know that the best horse in the stable makes the most crap. From this point of view, 2023 will clearly be dominated by VW. This is where the catch-up potential is greatest. BMW and Daimler will more or less continue on their successful course, although I have the most confidence in BMW due to the more balanced model range and regional structure.
Thomas Badtke spoke to Helmut Becker
