In view of the rising cost of living, the buying mood of Germans has been significantly dampened over the past year. But contrary to expectations, there is no collapse in consumption. The industry posts significantly more revenue. But the development does not affect everyone.
Due to the sharp rise in prices, German retailers achieved record sales last year. The revenue exceeded the result of the old record year 2021 by 8.2 percent, as the Federal Statistical Office announced in its preliminary estimate.
Adjusted for inflation (real), however, sales fell by 0.3 percent. "The difference between the nominal and real results reflects the high price increases in retail," it said. In 2021, real sales had grown by 0.8 percent.
The long-booming mail order and internet trade suffered a serious setback in the past year: its sales decline of 8.1 percent in real terms was above average. "However, this industry had achieved enormous sales growth during the Corona crisis," according to the statisticians.
Most recently, the trend for the entire retail trade showed a surprisingly clear upward trend. In November - when the important Christmas business traditionally begins with campaigns such as "Black Friday" - real turnover was 1.1 percent more than in the previous month. Economists had expected an increase of 1.0 percent here. "Despite the energy price debacle and poor consumer mood, sales are surprisingly stable," said Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank. "In any case, there hasn't been a sharp slump in consumption so far." The increasing familiarity with the crisis speaks against a collapse in consumption and for a mild recession.
However, the business is limited by the enormous loss of purchasing power on the part of consumers. These are suffering from the enormous inflation. In October, the inflation rate reached 10.4 percent, its highest level since 1951, but has since eased somewhat. Many experts are expecting real incomes to fall again this year, even if inflation is unlikely to be as high as in 2022.
