The Ministry of Economic Affairs refuses to consult the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) about its economic forecasts for the future preparation of the so-called Expenditure Ceiling that begins the budget plan.
That is the response sent by the cabinet of the First Vice President of the Government, Nadia Calviño, to AIReF's request to be consulted, according to this organization. "The Ministry responds that the issuance of a Report by AIReF on the Economic Situation Report is not provided for in the AIReF creation law, without this fact being able to be avoided by means of a request made by the Ministry", affirms the institution that Cristina Herrero presides in her follow-up document on the recommendations she makes to the Government.
AIReF's decision, according to sources from the organization to this newspaper, is what Herrero already points out in his evaluation of the Ministry's response and in his last appearance in the Senate, and it is that he has a right to issue opinions that he intends to exercise. In other words, he disregards the Ministry's letter and takes advantage of the legal provisions of the AIReF creation law, which empowers him to issue opinions related to budget stability.
According to the sources consulted, the Tax Authority has decided that, from now on and as long as the economy continues to present uncertainties such as the current ones, it will rule on the forecasts it considers realistic when the Government of the day publishes its so-called Economic Situation Report.
This is the report from the Ministry of Economic Affairs provided for in the Budgetary Stability Law to set the Expenditure Ceiling and in which, to the astonishment of AIReF, Calviño included last July a forecast of 2.7% growth in the economy Spanish by 2023, overwhelming the most optimistic economists. The European Commission estimated this Monday that it will be 1.4% and after an upward revision.
With that reference of 2.7% and by not consulting AIReF at the time, Calviño tried to include that same forecast two months later in the macroeconomic table on which the Budget bill for 2023 was based. He could not. There he did need the opinion of AIReF, because the European Commission requires it for its subsequent evaluation in Brussels.
Herrero refused to accept 2.7% and the most he compromised was endorsing 2.1% growth, which is what Calviño ended up sending to the European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, as this newspaper published on October 16. .
Sending the budget plan to the European Commission without the endorsement of AIReF led to a suspense in Brussels that the vice president wanted to avoid and gave in. However, 2.1% is still well above the consensus of national and international study services, which does not reach 1.5%.
Herrero then decided to officially recommend to the Government that, henceforth, ask AIReF for an opinion beforehand and thus avoid fights as risky as the one experienced, because a two-month difference between the Expenditure Ceiling and the Budgets is too long a period in times of uncertainty and can drastically alter the scenario. However, the letter signed by Calviño's then cabinet director, Judith Arnal, denies that possibility.
Arnal, who will be appointed this Tuesday as a new director of the Bank of Spain at the proposal of Calviño, gives "an unsatisfactory argument," says the Tax Authority, so it will act accordingly.
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