Does Germany, with its well-stocked gas storage facilities, have a comfortable buffer in case Russia's President Vladimir Putin completely stops the already throttled deliveries? Experts warn against lulling oneself into security given these reserves.
Germany's gas storage facilities are filling up surprisingly and surprisingly quickly. Economics Minister Robert Habeck, who is otherwise criticized for his crisis management, is pleased that the target for October of a fill level of 85 percent should be reached in just a few days. The memory is already a little over 80 percent full - and therefore fuller than it was at any time last year. So does Germany have a comfortable buffer if Russia's President Vladimir Putin stops the already curtailed deliveries altogether? Experts warn against this illusion. The storage buffer is far too small in relation to Germany's gas consumption. In order to become independent of Putin, there is only one thing that will help us: save gas.
Energy expert Lion Hirth from the Hertie School in Berlin warned weeks ago against a "fixation on gas storage levels". With a volume of just under 250 terawatt hours, however, they were not even sufficient to even cover half of the demand for private heating alone. In a single cold winter month, around 120 terawatt hours are consumed in Germany. Even if imports from non-Russian sources can be further increased compared to previous years, there is still a large gap that can only be filled by curbing consumption.
Without savings, Germany's gas reserves would be used up within less than four winter months if the flow of gas from Russia stopped, economist Benjamin Moll from the London School of Economics and Political Science calculates in a paper - even if the storage facilities were to be 100 percent full. A reduction in gas consumption by 25 percent, on the other hand, would mean that the reserves would be sufficient for six months of high consumption even without Russian gas.
According to Moll, whether the gas storage tanks are filled one percent more or less only changes the savings required in the coming autumn and winter months by 0.3 percent. On the other hand, a 1 percent reduction in gas requirements would help as much as 3.5 percent more in storage. Moll's rule of thumb: "So saving is more than three times as important as the saves".
The experts warn against getting too excited about the high level of storage. But that doesn't mean they're pessimistic. Economist Moll refers to other, even better news on Twitter. Because according to the latest figures from the Federal Network Agency, industry - in addition to private households with their gas heating systems, the main consumers in Germany - is making good progress with savings. In July, industrial gas consumption was more than 20 percent below that of the previous year, without production collapsing.
This means that the industry has almost achieved the necessary reduction in gas consumption estimated in a model by Moll and other economists. As a result, private households that are currently not affected outside of the heating period would have to save 15 percent on gas. On the other hand, electricity generation is completely wrong. The experts had calculated that this would have to reduce gas consumption by 45 percent. Due to the crisis on the electricity market, especially in France, the opposite is the case. In the past few months, gas generation has in some cases even been above the level of the previous year.
