Despite the recent rising mood among German exporters, the number of exports in October fell more sharply than expected. Imports are also falling more than they have been for a long time. Experts have mixed feelings about the coming year.
German exports fell for the second month in a row in October on weaker demand from Europe and the US. Exports shrank by 0.6 percent on the previous month to 133.5 billion euros, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall of only half as much, after a 0.7 percent drop in September. Imports even fell by 3.7 percent, more than they have since January.
Exports to the member states of the European Union fell by 2.4 percent to 71.4 billion euros in October. Business with the most important customer, the USA, shrank even more, namely by 3.9 percent to 13.9 billion euros. Exports to the People's Republic of China, on the other hand, remained stable at EUR 8.9 billion, while those to Great Britain increased by 4.1 percent to EUR 6.4 billion. From January to October 2022, exports grew by 14.9 percent to almost 1,300 billion euros.
The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) was recently pessimistic about the prospects for Germany, the European export champion. He expects exports to fall by two percent in the coming year. This means that the German export economy will earn more than 70 billion euros less abroad in 2023. "The slump in exports is here," emphasized DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier.
Despite concerns about a global recession, the mood among German exporters had recently brightened noticeably in November. The corresponding barometer rose to plus 0.4 points from minus 4.6 points in October, as the Munich IFO Institute found out in a survey of 2,300 companies. Positive and negative assessments of the prospects for the next three months are more or less balanced. "Small glimmers of hope are emerging for the German export industry," commented IFO President Clemens Fuest on the development of the barometer.
