If you were to cross paths with any professional gambler, their advice would be the same. Sure, you might be almost certain of winning some bets, but this isn't where the money lies. This is where the risks sit, and these are exactly the types of bets you need to avoid.
Instead, you need to be looking for value. Now, if you have been involved in gambling for a while and fully understand the business, you'll grasp what we are talking about. In short, you are looking to spot an opportunity where the bookmaker has underestimated the odds. You might not win all of the bets, but over the long run you should be more profitable.
So, what are the tell-tale signs of these value bets? Let's take a look at four quick points which can help you along your way.
Where is the price heading?
First and foremost, you can look at the numbers. Try to establish whether the bet you are considering is a value bet by researching the current odds and calculating your potential winnings using thebetcalculator.com. Then, take a look at how the odds have changed over time. If you can see that they have shortened quite quickly, it could be a sign that others have sensed some value and the bookies are quickly closing in on the deal.
Does the favorite have any recent injuries?
The team who currently sits top of the league might be facing another at the opposite end of the table. The odds are completely in their favor, but what if they run into an injury crisis? Or, perhaps more commonly, a sudden illness which takes out several key players?
Again, acting fast is key here, as most bookmakers will sense this as soon as they hear any such news.
Has the favorite recently been involved in another fixture?
Again, you might have a fixture involving two sides who have experienced completely alternate fortunes over recent times. However, if one has just been involved in a different game just a couple of days ago, and the other has had much longer to recuperate, it presents a value opportunity. This is one of those times where you can even automatically look for patterns in the fixture list to identify such opportunities.
Does the favorite struggle against a particular style of play?
This next point can be quite interesting and is less statistically led than the others. If we turn to football as an example, most teams have different styles. Comparing Wimbledon from the 80s or Stoke City from several years ago with a team like the Invincibles of Arsenal involves a completely unbalanced blend. The first two sides played a physical brand of football, whereas Arsenal were very much easy on the eye.
However, this easy on the eye nature didn’t always fare well against brute physicality. This is where league positions can sometimes take a back seat, and you can take advantage of the fact that some teams struggle (regardless of their quality) against certain styles of play. This can create monumental opportunities as again, the clues aren’t always in the data.Updated Date: 11 June 2020, 08:23