The third Corona year is in the fall. But when will the pandemic actually be over? In the USA, President Biden has already announced its end - despite the increasing number of deaths. In other regions of the world, however, there are actually indications that the last act may have begun.
The coronavirus pandemic is over in the USA - at least if you believe US President Joe Biden. "The pandemic is over," he announced in a television interview a few days ago. This may come as a surprising finding to outsiders, as tens of thousands of new cases are still being reported in the US every day. And according to the US health authority CDC, almost 400 people continue to die there every day from Covid-19.
According to the medical historian Jörg Vögele, there are two possible endings to a pandemic: An epidemiological one, when a pathogen no longer poses a problem for the health systems. Or a social one, when people just don't want to hear about it anymore. The latter seems to be most likely to be the case in the western world at the moment. The war in Ukraine dominates the news too much. Covid-19 is rarely reported anymore. At the most recent UN General Assembly in New York, the pandemic - unlike in the previous year - only played a minor role. But is the epidemiological end already near?
Corona is on the retreat worldwide, at least according to the latest report from the World Health Organization (WHO). In all regions of the world, the number of reported cases is falling or at least stagnating. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was confident a few days ago: "We have never been in a better position to end the pandemic," he said.
There are always huge differences depending on the region of the world. More than a million new cases were still recorded in Europe in the week of September 12-18. In East Asia there were more than 1.4 million. Japan in particular had a massive impact with more than 600,000 new infections. South Korea, which has long been considered a model country in dealing with the pandemic, also recorded almost 400,000 cases in the week mentioned. It still sounds like a lot, but the trend is also declining.
In Africa, on the other hand, Corona no longer seems to be an issue. The continent with more than a billion inhabitants did not even report 7,000 new infections in the same week - about as many as Austria last reported per day. At the same time, for Africa it was a drop of more than a third compared to the previous week. South Africa, which has been through multiple waves during the pandemic, has recently been reporting just a few hundred new cases a day.
In Africa, however, there are fewer tests due to structural reasons, so experts assume that there is a huge number of undetected corona cases. However, what is an indication that the pandemic is actually ebbing away on the continent: According to the WHO, the number of reported deaths related to Covid-19 is at the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. Almost 40 corona deaths were recorded in one week. During the big waves of 2020 and 2021, there were more than a hundred times that number.
In the USA, on the other hand, the end of the pandemic seems to have been more of a social nature so far. People are "done with the pandemic," US epidemiologist Michael Osterholm told the online health magazine Stat. "You want to put that behind you." In his view, this is also how President Biden’s statement that the pandemic is “over” should be understood. Epidemiologically, however, the pandemic in the USA is still in full swing: the number of deaths has recently increased slightly again, Covid-19 is still the fourth most common cause of death in the USA.
And in Germany? The incidence in this country remains at a high level. However, the number of intensive care patients is only half as high as at the same time last year. Around 100 deaths are reported every day. So far this year, almost twice as many people have died from Covid-19 as in the entire previous year. The Robert Koch Institute does not want to give the all-clear yet: Despite the currently stable number of cases, the infection pressure in the general population remains high in all age groups, according to the current RKI weekly report. But in the public debate, Covid is currently also only marginal.
When will the corona pandemic end worldwide? An exact date will probably be difficult to determine. Because experts assume that Sars-CoV-2 will no longer disappear, but will become endemic. From when this point in time occurs exactly - difficult to say. However, the WHO could at least announce the end of the pandemic at some point. By declaring the "health emergency of international scope" that has been in force since January 2020 to be over.
"We're not that far yet, but the end is in sight," said WHO chief Tedros a few days ago. "A marathon runner doesn't stop when the finish line is in sight. She runs with even more determination, with all the energy left in her. We have to do the same." Otherwise there is a risk of new virus variants, more deaths and greater uncertainties, according to Tedros. The WHO is therefore calling on all countries to continue testing and, above all, to vaccinate. The elderly and health workers in particular should be 100 percent vaccinated. Overall, every country should aim to have 70 percent of its population vaccinated.
Maybe a sign of hope: Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, actually one of the biggest warners and pessimists with regard to Sars-CoV-2, recently expressed his confidence on Twitter: "Many ask themselves: does Corona never end? When will endemics come?" Not this fall, Lauterbach wrote - it wouldn't work without effective protective measures. But: "In the long term, vaccines will come that protect against many variants and infections. I assume this is the end."
(This article was first published on Friday, September 23, 2022.)
