Experts fear a new corona wave for autumn and winter. Germany is preparing well for this, promises Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach. However, specific points have not yet been clarified - and a new infection protection law comes too late for some.
Hardly any masks, hundreds of people in front of festival stages, air travel on vacation: Life this summer almost feels like it did before Corona. But the virus is not gone yet. At the moment, the number of infections is even increasing again - although by no means all cases are counted because not everyone does a PCR test. "The real incidences are much higher, because only the positive PCR tests are counted," explains doctor and medical journalist Christoph Specht at ntv.
Germany is in the middle of a summer wave. "It had also been predicted by some experts. This time we are dealing with variants that can also spread well in summer," says Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach on ntv. He also thinks four-digit incidence figures are possible.
The pandemic summer effect from last year is canceled this time. At the end of June 2021, the 7-day incidence was still 8, but it is currently almost 592. The 7-day hospitalization is currently around 13 times higher than a year ago, with a value of over five.
That's because there are almost no more precautions, says Lauterbach in the "Rheinische Post". Masks are currently only mandatory in hospitals, nursing homes, medical practices and on buses and trains. The Minister of Health recommends wearing them voluntarily anyway.
In addition, the current virus variant is very easy to transmit. The Omicron variant BA.5 is giving Germany an increasing number of corona cases. The new subvariant currently dominates the case, reports the Robert Koch Institute. Although it spreads faster, the RKI has not yet had any indications of more severe courses due to BA.5. The virologist Reinhold Förster also gives the all-clear on ntv: “We are not yet seeing any increase within the protected population group, so there are no more hospitalizations and more serious cases.” The variants are no more ill than the previous ones.
After the summer wave, the experts are already predicting the next one. For the autumn and winter, the Ministry of Health sees frequent infections coming our way. Of three possible Corona autumn scenarios, it considers the moderately severe to be the most likely. The intensive care units would be “moderately” burdened over a long period of time.
The virologist Christian Drosten expects a month-long wave of infections until March with a particularly large number of cases by October at the latest. And in addition to the corona cases, there is also the regular wave of flu.
Anyone can become infected, Hendrik Streeck makes it clear on ntv. The virologist refers to major events in autumn and winter. "On the one hand, there's the Munich Oktoberfest, on the other hand there's the World Cup games, which don't take place in one place, but are celebrated indoors throughout Germany, and there's public viewing." There you have to reckon with sources of infection.
Doctors are therefore calling on politicians to do something quickly, preferably before the summer break. Minister Karl Lauterbach has presented a seven-point plan for the fall. This includes, among other things, faster use of medication for sick people, better protection for people in nursing homes, daily numbers of hospitals for intensive care capacity and a new vaccination campaign. "I firmly assume that we will be much better prepared than in recent years," Lauterbach is convinced on ntv.
The minister believes that Germany will be better off in December than it was a year ago. Because there are more vaccinated and recovered people - and the course of the disease is milder when infected with the omicron variant BA.5.
One point on Lauterbach's list is taking too long, especially for the federal states: a new infection protection law. The Corona regulations - as they are now - expire in three months, on September 23rd. Lauterbach wants to agree on the most important points for this before the summer break. However, there is a dispute with the coalition partner FDP. Federal Minister of Justice Marco Buschmann wants to wait for the report of the Federal Government's expert commission - it will come at the end of the month. The new law could not be passed until the beginning of September at the latest, says Green Party leader Britta Hasselmann.
The four federal states of Bavaria, Hesse, Baden-Württemberg and North Rhine-Westphalia are demanding stricter protective measures in the new Infection Protection Act, says North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister of Health Karl-Josef Laumann on ntv: "Of course it's about testing Of course, there is also the question of whether upper limits for people can be reintroduced for events. Above all, of course, it is also about the question of mask requirements." If Lauterbach has its way, a mask requirement could apply indoors again from autumn.
Another major point of contention was the Corona citizen tests. They are free for everyone until the end of June. After that, they should cost three euros for most people. They remain free only for children, women at the beginning of pregnancy and visitors to hospitals and nursing homes. The federal states are free to take on the own contribution of three euros for other groups as well.
The Greens wanted everyone to be able to have themselves tested free of charge from July as before. The federal states also wanted it - but they didn't want to pay for it, the money should come from the federal government.
There was already massive fraud in the citizen tests, investigators speak of a sum of up to 1.5 billion euros that flowed into the pockets of criminals. In addition, the tests are expensive. "The test strategy so far has already cost over 13.4 billion and of course it will continue like this," explains Christoph Specht at ntv. He also criticizes the inaccuracy of the citizen tests.
In autumn, the federal government wants to start a new vaccination campaign when there are new vaccines. Less than three quarters of the people in Germany are still vaccinated. At the end of 2021, the federal government’s goal for initial vaccinations was 80 percent – currently it is only around 76 percent. It's not because of the vaccine quantities, there's even so much there that millions of doses have to be thrown away. At the end of June, four million expired corona vaccine doses must be destroyed.
The manufacturers announced their new vaccines adapted to Omikron months ago. In September they should come onto the market, including those from Moderna and Biontech. The Moderna vaccine is also designed to protect against sub-variants BA.4 and BA.5. "If the vaccine doesn't come, it won't be that bad," says virologist Klaus Stöhr on ntv. "The current vaccine is also very effective against omicron. Even if only this vaccine is available in the fall, it would get us through the winter very well." The current corona vaccines do not help against infection, but against a severe course of the disease.
So we can still take a deep breath. Most experts expect the number of infections to rise sharply again at the end of the summer holidays. From autumn we may have to wear masks in more places, keep our distance and reduce our contacts. At a meeting in early July, the health ministers want to discuss exactly what the measures in autumn could look like. But the Federal Ministry of Health has already made one thing clear: Daycare centers and schools should definitely remain open.
