The Munich Wiesn is running, in the beer tents at the Oktoberfest there is a boisterous celebration - without distance, masks and corona worries. Is the pandemic in Bavaria already over? The world's largest folk festival is mutating into a huge corona field test.
After two years of a forced break due to the pandemic, there will be celebrations again on Munich's Theresienwiese. Despite the smoldering infection rate, the Oktoberfest, the largest folk festival in the world, will take place this year as planned without any restrictions due to the pandemic. There are no mandatory precautionary measures for visitors, not even inside the 17 marquees, where experience has shown that there is the greatest crowd.
In the run-up to the opening on September 17, Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder spoke of a celebration of "joy and freedom", but at the same time admitted that the number of cases would increase. "The number of infections will probably increase, that's the experience of the previous festivals," said the CSU boss before the start last weekend.
Millions of guests from all over the world are expected to attend the 187th Oktoberfest in Munich until October 3rd. Above all, however, there is concern that the exuberant hustle and bustle could develop into a huge super-spreading event. Söder tried to dispel this concern: "At the same time, fortunately, we are not measuring any excessive burden on the hospitals," he emphasized. "That suggests that we are in a new phase with Corona."
In the official corona case numbers for Munich, any infections in connection with the Oktoberfest are of course not yet recognizable. With an average incubation period of around four days, larger swings in the pandemic data would only be expected when the chains of infection emanating from festival visitors have penetrated into the wider personal environment - and family members, acquaintances and work colleagues have become infected.
In addition, the official data only shows the coronavirus infections that have become officially known and have been proven by laboratory tests. It is well known that not all infected people develop symptoms. And not all sick people can be tested. With the extensive elimination of testing obligations, case recording has become even more patchy than before. And even more important: Rising incidence values no longer necessarily lead to an overload of the healthcare system. The number of severe cases and deaths is more important.
With his optimistic assessment of the Corona situation, CSU politician Söder can actually rely on certain empirical values. Larger folk festivals have already taken place in various places in Bavaria in recent weeks and months. The Bergkirchweih in Erlangen at the end of May or the Gäubodenfest in Straubing and the Herbstfest in Rosenheim at the end of August have already been celebrated without Corona requirements.
In all of these places, the number of cases then skyrocketed – in Rosenheim, for example, the increase began around a week and a half after the “silent Oktoberfest” began. Shortly thereafter, the city and district had incidence values of well over 1000, but the number of severe Covid cases did not rise nearly as steeply as in the pandemic waves of previous years. The situation in Straubing and Erlangen was similar: the situation in the clinics remained manageable. However, problems were caused by the absences due to infected staff.
So is it time for carefree celebrations? Does the Oktoberfest of German pandemic policy provide an example of how to "live with the virus"? Experts are skeptical about the urge for normality and "freedom". Not one of the folk festivals mentioned by Söder as an example comes even close to the Munich Wiesn in terms of visitor numbers. And no other folk festival attracts so many visitors from abroad.
"One thing is clear," said Florian Geyer, head of the Miesbach health department in Upper Bavaria, in the "Münchner Merkur" with a view to the Munich Oktoberfest: "You can't ventilate a beer tent sufficiently. And it's an international meeting place - the best conditions so for the virus to spread, mutate and change. Whether and how it will do that we cannot predict."
