Reason probably Oktoberfest: seven-day incidence in Munich increases by leaps and bounds

Millions of people celebrate together at Munich's Oktoberfest, thousands of them sit tightly packed in beer tents.

Reason probably Oktoberfest: seven-day incidence in Munich increases by leaps and bounds

Millions of people celebrate together at Munich's Oktoberfest, thousands of them sit tightly packed in beer tents. Apparently, this also leads to more corona infections. The incidence goes up by 77 percent and is thus rising much faster than in the whole of Germany.

A week and a half after the start of the Oktoberfest, the corona numbers in Munich are increasing faster and faster. On a weekly basis, the incidence has risen by almost 77 percent to 424.9, according to figures from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). That is significantly more than the Bavaria-wide increase of 43.1 percent or the all-German increase of 29.4 percent. The incidence is the number of new corona infections recorded per 100,000 people within seven days.

Since the health authorities report practically no new cases to the RKI on weekends, which the RKI can include in the figures for the next morning, Tuesday is usually the first day of the week on which there are significant increases in the incidences. A connection between the increase and the Oktoberfest can hardly be proven at the moment, but it is obvious.

At other folk festivals, too, there was often a significant increase in the incidence about a week and a half after the start. Often these were then increased for a good week. Experts had also predicted a Wiesn wave in the run-up to the Oktoberfest.

In the meantime, however, the incidence figures have lost some of their meaningfulness. Experts have been assuming for some time that there will be a high number of corona cases not recorded by the RKI - mainly because by far not all infected people have a PCR test done. Only positive PCR tests count in the statistics. In addition, late registrations and transmission problems can lead to the distortion of individual daily values.

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