After the drought months, the rainy September was a blessing - for nature. Many Germans are likely to look forward to more sun in October - but they still have to be patient. But the rainy weather in this country is no comparison to what people in Florida are going through right now, explains ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander.
ntv: Before looking at the weather in Germany, the first question about hurricane "Ian": How dangerous was and is it?
Björn Alexander: The fact that the potential of "Ian" is considerable to dramatic, especially in terms of water masses, has already become apparent with rain totals of up to over 1000 liters per square meter in the past few days on some computer models. The magnitude of the storm surge was also forecast. At the same time, "Ian" increased again to level 4 of 5 with wind speeds of around 240 to 250 km/h shortly before landfall on Wednesday. In terms of size, perhaps a little surprising. On the other hand, this also shows how dangerous the development is.
What does it look like in the future?
"Ian" has weakened significantly and is - as of now - a tropical storm with wind speeds of around 100 km/h. However, the torrential rain is still explosive.
What quantities will it be in the end?
Until Friday, the rain totals in the affected parts of Florida are likely to be 300 to 600 liters per square meter. Significantly larger quantities should also be included. In places, sizes of 750 to 1000 liters cannot be ruled out. For comparison: Within two days, that is more than the annual precipitation of Berlin, which is around 650 liters.
What does "Ian" do after leaving Florida?
After a little dangling across the water, he will hit land again. Namely on the coast of South Carolina on Friday and Saturday. "Ian" will remain below the hurricane category. The amount of rain is also more moderate and should be around 150 to 250 liters per square meter.
How does this compare to other hurricanes?
"Ian" is easily one of the most intense hurricanes to hit Florida on record. In terms of water masses, it stands out in comparison. One of the rainiest hurricanes ever to hit the southern United States was Harvey, which hit Texas in 2017. Within four to five days he brought in peaks of up to 1200 liters. So "Ian" couldn't be that far away from that.
So back to Europe and the weather in this country: What can we expect on the long weekend?
After the weather has calmed down with a guest appearance by Indian summer, the next low is already approaching on Saturday. It is - after the rather cool polar air recently - still milder. Unfortunately, rain and brisk to stormy winds are also on the agenda.
With what prospects in detail?
On Saturday new, sometimes heavy rain will spread from west to east. Especially in the mountainous areas with 10 to 20 liters per square meter within 12 hours. Later there will even be individual thunderstorms in the north-west. There is a risk of sometimes stormy gusts in the lowlands and full gusts of wind up to force 10 on the mountains. In the continuous rain, the temperatures sometimes only reach around 10 degrees, on the Rhine up to 17 degrees.
And on Sunday?
It will continue to be windy to stormy, especially in the south and on the coasts, and will be variable with showers or longer-lasting rain. Occasional thunderstorms are also possible. In short: The full autumn says hello - but with 11 to 18 degrees it is still relatively mild.
Where does the weather pendulum point on Unity Day?
Rather in different directions. On the one hand, the northeastern half is still overgrown and wet in places. On the other hand, the south and west can look forward to an improvement in the weather with more dry periods and sun. The temperatures are little changed at 11 to 18 degrees. Afterwards, however, the chances of October of the golden kind increase everywhere with corresponding temperatures, which will increase to 15 to 23 degrees by Thursday.
With the turn of the month, it is also important to evaluate September. What do the statistics say about the first month of autumn?
Fortunately, September was far too wet after the drought months, with currently around 100 liters of rain per square meter on average nationwide. This corresponds to over 150 percent of the rain target. Compared to the past 30 years, it has been a bit too cool and too sunless.
What predictions can already be made for the month of October?
At the moment, the experimental long-term forecasts are pointing towards an average up to wet October. That would mean around 55 to 70 liters on average across the country. The foundation stone should of course already be laid at the weekend. At the same time, October 2022 should be a little too warm. In times of climate change, however, such overly warm trends are the norm.
