Study on the population of the world: No infinite growth

During the United Nations that the world population will grow until the year 2100, the American scientists from the University of Washington in Seattle to rise

Study on the population of the world: No infinite growth

During the United Nations that the world population will grow until the year 2100, the American scientists from the University of Washington in Seattle to rise only up to the year 2064. Then is achieved, with an estimated 9,73 billion people an all-time high. By 2100 the number will fall back to 8,79 billion. That would be a good two billion people, less than the United Nations in 2019 calculated.

Peter-Philipp Schmitt

editor in the Department "Germany and the world".

F. A. Z.

The study, which was published by Christopher Murray and his Team on Wednesday in the scientific journal "The Lancet" and by the Foundation of Bill and Melinda Gates funded, it even suggests that the population of the world could fall in 80 years to less than seven billion. Currently, approximately 7.8 billion people on the earth.

Only 66 million inhabitants in Germany

One of the main reasons for the sharp decline: women, the access to education and birth control, choose to have fewer children. Crucial for the reproduction of a population, the birth rate is. It indicates the average number of children that women of childbearing age up to 50 years. In Germany, she is currently at approximately 1.4. In the long term, the population number, if the fertility rate drops below 2.1. And you, as the scientist from Seattle to write, in almost all countries. In their study, they have developed scenarios, building on the year 2017, for 195 countries and territories. By 2050, already 151 countries have a birth rate of significantly below 2.1, up to the year 2100 183 countries.

The result is that In 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand and Spain, will have today's population in 80 years, more than halved in Japan from nearly 130 to about 60 million, in Thailand-from 70 to 35 million, and in Spain from 46 to 23 million people. In Germany, the researchers expect to see a decline of well over 83 million inhabitants, to about 66 million.

Also, China's population will halve, according to that almost – from 1.4 billion to 732 million people. The people's Republic would remain, however, in the year 2100, one of the most populous countries in the world, after India (decline of 1.38 to just under 1.1 billion people), and Nigeria (an increase of 206 791 million) and the United States (an increase from 325 million to 336 million) and Pakistan (up from 214 to 248 million).

Updated Date: 15 July 2020, 16:20

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