Coronautbrottet will, in the short term, to reduce the English rate of inflation, due to falling oil prices, increasing the likelihood of lower pay, nedåtpress on the price of the airfare and travel packages, and a gradually stronger krona. Danske Bank expects the bank to face the next räntemöte in april, with a CPIF inflation rate in march and the final outcome prior to the meeting), which is 0.5 percentage point lower than its own forecast, but down 0.4 percentage points of the CPIF excluding energy.
" the Subdued inflation outlook is far short of the target, is therefore the justification of our assessment of the central bank, are writing to Danske Bank, which is now changing its outlook and lowering the interest rate by 25 basis points in april to sek-0.25 per cent.
They think at the same time, the Riksbank would like to make it clear that this is a temporary stimulus, and will, therefore, present an interest rate path where the repo rate will be raised again by 25 basis points in a year.
Danske Bank's assessment is that the Riksbank's first move is a rate cut, but it can also be the case with an increase in the balance sheet. Would coronautbrottet interfere with the global value chains and over a longer period of time so that the companies get to cash-flow problems, will the Riksbank is prepared to quickly provide liquidity, most likely by offering banks cheap finance and not directly to the company. Would tillgångsköpen be expanded, is expected to the purchase of government bonds, to be supplemented by the purchase of municipal bonds.
as regards the coronavirusets impact on the american economy, says Danske Bank, that the government's view, the 0.3 percentage point less to GDP growth this year seems reasonable.
" A considerable degree of uncertainty, however, lies in its indirect effect, through the major economies of the Eurozone (a major oroskälla), and the united states. This includes the duration of the effect: the longer it lasts, the greater the impact is likely to be writing to Danske Bank.
and the decline on stock exchanges, if they get worse, likely to reduce consumption in the short term, particularly if this coincides with an increase in the uncertainty of the arbetsmarknadsutsikterna. There are also some early signs of price expectations is attenuated in the housing market.
the Greatest impact is expected to the coronavirus have on the manufacturing sector, however, there is also reason to believe that the turistberoende industries such as airline, hotel, restaurants and event planning company, will be affected by this.
< Date Of Update: 06 March 2020, 08:00
