The anticipation of where and when the coronaepidemin reach the general distribution in Sweden is discussed, infective, respectively, of mortal this is a new infection, and the capacity is good, in the case that a lot of people would require hospital treatment.
in Infectiousness as a whole is a combination of how contagious an infection is, how many people an infectious person will experience during a certain period of time and how long is the infectiousness period. It is stated in the R's. Initially, stated the researchers in China [R]=2.2 Cov19, i.e., an infected person can, on average, the infection was 2.2 persons. Common säsonginfluensa, R=1,7. The infection of their lives with, in all likelihood, life-long immunity. Of course, the more people will become immune and no longer susceptible to the infection, the lower the R-value.
When there is less than 1, R<1, then dies of the infection, but the infected can not infect a new susceptible individual. This is an infection that is more contagious than the flu, but it is not nearly as contagious as the measles vaccine, which has R=15 at the beginning of the epidemic.
We should have had a more careful
One of the still unclear, the question is: how long can a person who is infected is contagious. The time is very short, just a few days, and both the measles and the flu, but it is likely to be much longer in a coronainfektion.
as of the Time of infection to symptoms, the incubation period is also uncertain. The current benchmark of 14 days, it can be much longer, at least in certain cases. Some people also seem to be contagious even before your symptoms (cough and fever) had broken out in earnest. Paramedics in Stockholm, sweden, makes home visits to people who are suspected of being infected with corona.Photo by: < / b> to ANDERS WIKLUND/TT
the Epidemic of global expansion, with new foci in different locations, far apart, a pattern that has not been seen in the past. Thus, there are still gaps in our knowledge of this new virus, and might be able to expect greater care from the authorities when the man walked out with the recommendations in the epidemic start-up phase.
the Higher the death rates for the us elderly
the Mortality rate is low, in this infection, the referring authorities, with the understandable intention is to pacify the people. So far, the 3 per cent. However, if the mortality rate is finally expected to be 2 per cent for the population as a whole, it is most likely much higher in the us, the elderly. It is so far, essentially we are who is seriously ill, and even die of this infection. People over the age of 65 make up around 20 per cent of the population, and the us would, in fact, the mortality rate could be around 10 per cent, and we will, of course, also within the scope of the national välfärdskontraktet.
Preparedness is the poor
About the willingness and ability within the health care system to cope with a widely-used Cov19 infection, it can be concluded that it is not very clear. In Sweden, we already have the lowest number of hospital beds per capita in Europe, and many of these are not yet the subject of the present and, above all, on the basis of the sjuksköterskebristen. Maybe it is a bit better in the countries that have been at war, and had its systems tested under the most extreme conditions, however, it is clear that no country can have health care, who are ready to accept the, perhaps, thousands of ill and infectious patients.
There are several bottlenecks, such as access to medical personnel, for sick beds/ intensivvårdsplatser, to the safety equipment. The immediate task for the government would, for the time being, call off the all the notice, and, instead, focus its efforts to get the nurses that are currently outside of the health care system.
For a nation-wide infection, it's not going to be the resources, where the improvisations to be made as acceptable as possible. Personally, I believe that national solidarity could be mobilised, and with an undreamed-of powers.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
For the few cases in various parts of the country, preparations are now at long last up and running. Our ability to smittspårning is good, which means that the infection may be limited compared to many other places, and our homes are generally well-equipped, and shall then, for the moderately ill. The government and the concerned authorities have started to pick up, and the look of the beredskapsresurserna.
This, then, is both troubling and positive aspects of our preparedness, but we need to continue to be so as much as we can to prepare ourselves for the worst but hope for the best. < / span> < / span>
an infectious disease specialist.
at 81 years old, and thus a firm footing in the higher risk groups.
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