Boycott 5-Stars Vote: Draghi survives no-confidence vote - but government shakes anyway

The government in Italy may be coming to an end, despite parliamentary votes of confidence in Prime Minister Draghi.

Boycott 5-Stars Vote: Draghi survives no-confidence vote - but government shakes anyway

The government in Italy may be coming to an end, despite parliamentary votes of confidence in Prime Minister Draghi. With the 5-Star Movement, a coalition partner is completely absent from the vote - a reason for Draghi's resignation. Actually.

The Italian government under Prime Minister Mario Draghi has passed a vote of confidence in Parliament. A stimulus package she put to the vote passed the chamber with 172 votes to 39. However, the coalition partner, the 5-Star Movement, stayed away from the vote, as announced. Draghi had announced before the vote that his government would not be able to continue without the support of the 5 Star Movement. Immediately after the vote, Draghi went to see President Sergio Mattarella.

The head of state must decide on the further procedure for solving the government crisis. He could persuade Draghi to remain in office and face another no-confidence vote in the next few days. If the 5 Star Movement decides to back the coalition again, Draghi's unity government could remain in power - albeit badly battered.

5-star boss Giuseppe Conte, who was prime minister himself before Draghi, has left the door open for talks with the head of government. However, more and more members of Conte's populist party are urging the government to resign and go into opposition.

It is conceivable that Draghi will hold another vote of confidence and will receive the support of the other previous coalition partners. Among them are Matteo Salvini's far-right Lega, the centre-left Democratic Party and a sizable group of five-star politicians who have seceded from Conte in the past month. It also includes former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's conservative Forza Italia and ex-Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's small, social-liberal partner Italia Viva.

With her support, Draghi would have a smaller but viable majority in both chambers. However, Draghi has already stated that he will not lead a coalition without the 5 Star Movement. Lega leader Salvini and the Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD) have also signaled that they will not support another government unless the 5-Star Movement supports the stimulus package in the Senate. Even if Draghi, Lega and PD changed their minds, the result would be a coalition with a strong right-wing bias. This would program the dispute between the partners, especially since the regular parliamentary elections are due next year and the parties want to sharpen their profiles.

If Draghi resigns and is unwilling to lead a new government, President Mattarella can dissolve parliament and call new elections. This could take place at the end of September or in October. Draghi could remain in office as managing director. Mattarella could also ask someone else to lead the government for the remainder of the legislature. However, a new election carries risks.

Not only could the far-right Lega gain strength. Italy still has a number of deadlines to meet this year to receive billions in EU funds. In addition, the budget has to be approved, which usually happens in the last months of the year. Without a functioning government, this could fail.

To avoid a snap election and financial turmoil, Mattarella could seek to form a new unity government. This could appoint an independent figure to lead the government until the regular parliamentary elections in 2023. However, it is difficult to imagine that the previous partners in Draghi's government would come together under a new prime minister.